Jobs lost: 27.7 million. Jobs created: 52 million. Over the next thirty years. Along with several million fewer deaths from pollution, billions saved in healthcare spending and the achievement of the Paris targets to save the climate. Here are some of the reasons why the authors of a scientific study would like us all to switch to renewable energy.
Nearly three-quarters of the world's countries could be powered entirely by renewable energy sources by 2050 – if we truly want it. According to an ambitious new roadmap drawn up by scientists for an emissions-free future powered by renewables, it is possible to create millions of jobs, cut billions in healthcare and climate damage costs, and make a potentially decisive contribution to saving our planet from global warming.
Thirty scientists firmly believe this can become a reality: that is why they have developed dozens of action plans for almost every place in the world, pointing the way to begin or complete the transition to clean energy. The benefits will be many, and not only for the environment: millions more jobs and a reduction in healthcare costs. The action plans are more ambitious than the targets set by the Paris Agreement on climate.
The solution is to 'electrify' all sectors (transport, heating, industry, agriculture, fishing) and ensure that electricity comes 100% from wind, water and sun
If completed by 2050, these programmes will be able to prevent a temperature rise of 1.5°C, millions of deaths due to pollution, can create up to 24.3 million long-term full-time jobs, reduce energy costs for society and enable more people around the world to access energy.
Such a wide-ranging restructuring of existing energy infrastructure goes well beyond what the United Nations Paris Climate Agreement (COP21) actually calls for. But the researchers say there are compelling reasons for everyone to do it as soon as possible.
"The results of our studies suggest that the benefits are so great that it makes sense to accelerate the transition to wind, water and solar as fast as possible – says one of the team members, Mark Delucchi of the University of California Berkeley – retiring fossil fuel systems on a set schedule wherever that can be done."
This is because doing so not only creates new jobs in renewables – a net increase of more than 24 million full-time positions worldwide is projected – but we would all also be healthier, with fewer fossil fuel emissions polluting the atmosphere, land and water. Indeed, the team of scientists states that the reduction in air pollution would cut premature deaths by more than 4.6 million every year.
But perhaps even more important in the long term, a switch to renewables by all countries would make it possible to achieve the goal of keeping the rise in global temperatures to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
The scientists' formula envisages, in addition to the environmental and strategic benefits of eliminating dependence on foreign supplies, highly interesting results in terms of jobs: the balance between those created in clean energy and those lost in conventional energy would show a net gain of 485,000 new positions. Another benefit would be for health: avoidable deaths each year would amount to between 5,000 and 45,000.
In Italy, solar has an advantage, the Stanford research notes. For example, the study states, there are 737 square kilometres of rooftops suitable for hosting photovoltaic panels.
A (somewhat cautious) study carried out by the United States government in 2014 had calculated, using three widely used economic models, the so-called "social" cost at 37 dollars for every new tonne of CO2 produced in 2015. The US Environmental Protection Agency uses this figure as a benchmark for regulations on energy management, emissions and mitigation measures. A study subsequently published in the journal Nature Climate Change, carried out by a group of Stanford scientists, estimated that the costs could be far more severe, reaching as high as 220 dollars per tonne of CO2 produced.
The World Bank and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (Ihme) presented the report "The Cost of Air Pollution: Strengthening the economic case for action", which reveals that air pollution is in fourth place among the leading risk factors for premature death in the world and is currently the deadliest form of pollution. A report from three years ago highlighted that when losses are viewed from a welfare perspective (welfare losses), according to a method commonly used to assess the costs and benefits of environmental regulations in a given country, "the total cost of premature deaths due to air pollution, combining all age groups, is estimated at more than 5,000 billion dollars. In East Asia and South Asia, these 'welfare losses' represent the equivalent of approximately 7.5% of GDP."
The health cost of pollution in Italy stands at around 88 billion euros per year, with more than 32,000 premature deaths a year. This is according to estimates by the WHO and the OECD.
This new research, which in an early form had initially been presented to world leaders at COP21 in 2015, builds on a previous roadmap focused solely on the United States, which demonstrated how all 50 American states could make this switch to renewables, meeting all of the country's energy needs by 2050.
Both studies were led by Mark Z. Jacobson of Stanford University, co-founder of The Solutions Project.
"What strikes me most about the results of this study is that every country we examined would have sufficient resources to meet its own energy needs – Charles Q. Choi told Ieee Spectrum – although in the case of a couple of small states with very large populations, this might require importing energy from a neighbour or using an unusually high amount of offshore energy." This is because larger countries, with greater land area relative to their population figures, would enjoy greater flexibility in finding suitable sites for solar, wind and hydroelectric plants.
The roadmap for 139 countries was an enormous undertaking, but the team has no intention of stopping there.
"We are developing maps for individual cities to go to 100% clean and renewable energy," said Jacobson.
The results are published here, in Joule.