Turkey's parliament recently began examining a proposed constitutional revision that would concentrate the vast majority of powers in the hands of the president — and that would in particular allow the current leader of the euro-Asian nation, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, to remain in power until 2029.

Turkey moving towards a strongly presidential system

The reform would establish in Ankara a strongly presidentialist form of government, with the transfer of powers currently held by the prime minister to the head of state. This would create a monocratic office in which the roles of president and head of government would converge. "Two commanders sink ships: only one must decide," declared Binali Yıldırım, the current prime minister, before parliament.

The text of the reform was already approved by a parliamentary committee at the end of 2016 and, according to reports from the pro-government news agency Anadolu, could receive the green light from MPs within a couple of weeks. A referendum will then be organised within sixty days of approval — that is, presumably between the end of March and the beginning of April. According to the opposition, this represents an acceleration towards an authoritarian drift, particularly evident since the attempted coup of 15 July last year and the purges that followed. By contrast, members of Erdoğan's Islamist-conservative AKP party say they are convinced of the need to introduce a presidential system in order to ensure governmental stability for Turkey.

Opposition protests

A protest demonstration was organised outside parliament on Monday 9 January. Police immediately intervened to disperse the crowd, using tear gas and water cannons: according to the AFP news agency, a number of people were injured, among them several MPs from the opposition CHP (social democrats). If the reform is approved, new elections (legislative and presidential) will be held in November 2019. From that point on, whoever is elected to lead the country may serve for a maximum of two consecutive five-year terms. This would, in effect, allow Erdoğan to keep his seat for another thirteen years from today. In addition, the president will be able to dissolve parliament, appoint ministers independently, command the armed forces, control the state budget and unilaterally declare states of emergency.

To be approved by Turkey's parliament, the proposed constitutional reform will need to secure a majority of at least 330 MPs (out of a total of 550). A threshold within reach of the AKP, given that the revision is also supported by the nationalist right of the MHP: together, the two parties can count on 355 seats.