Voting took place in Sweden on Sunday 9 September. The Democrats, a far-right party, achieved a historic result but will not govern.
10 September, 8:00 – Results, still partial but almost definitive, point to a perfect tie between the centre-left coalition and the centre-right coalition, both obtaining 143 seats in the Riksdag, the Swedish parliament, and therefore falling short of a majority. The Social Democrats obtain 28.4 per cent, around 3 per cent less than the previous round: it is the worst result ever for the moderate left. The more radical left, on the other hand, grows strongly, coming close to 10 per cent.
Update 9 September, 22:00 – While counting is still under way, the Social Democratic Party appears to have won the Swedish elections by a wide margin, albeit suffering a decline compared to the previous round. The centre-left movement is credited by exit polls with a share of votes of between 25.4 and 26.2 per cent. The far-right party Sweden Democrats, meanwhile, is projected at between 16.3 and 19.2 per cent — less, therefore, than the polls had credited them with before the vote, though it is nonetheless a historic result. The Conservatives are placed at between 17.8 and 18.4 per cent: between them and the far right, a neck-and-neck race for second place is taking shape.
That is the picture for individual parties. Far less clear is the result in terms of coalitions: the centre-right and the centre-left are both projected at around 39 per cent. It will be necessary to wait for the end of counting to understand who will be tasked with forming the new government of the Scandinavian nation.
Sunday 9 September's elections are not expected to hand the country to the far right. According to the polls, however, the Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna, SD) and their leader Jimmie Akesson could achieve an unprecedented result. According to the left-leaning daily Dagens Nyheter, they could thus manage to transform the politics of the Scandinavian nation.
The party, for its part, has already organised its victory party. An outdoor barbecue steeped in the colours of the Swedish flag — yellow and blue — accompanied by nationalist chants and tournaments of "varpa" (a traditional Viking game that involves throwing a stone disc at a stick planted twenty metres away). The polls put SD — whose "neo-Nazi origins" the Washington Post highlights — at around 20 per cent nationally. With particular peaks in certain regions, which could become genuine black strongholds. This is the case with the province of Smaland: for centuries a poor area of the country, with arid land that is difficult to cultivate.
The reason for this political phenomenon? Mainly one: fear of migrants. Sweden has in fact taken in a high number of refugees relative to its population. From 2006 onwards, waves of Iraqis arrived on Scandinavian soil, followed by Syrians and Afghans. From 2015 onwards, the figure then exploded: 250,000 arrivals in just a few years.
The Democrats thus went into the elections proposing to halve the number of people entering the country. That figure, however, has already been drastically reduced: in 2017 it did not exceed 26,000. Furthermore, SD's programme includes a sharp cut to funds allocated for reception and, more broadly, for the homeless. In addition, pointing to a direct link between migration and crime, SD is calling for harsher penalties for acts of violence and sexual abuse. Finally, adding wind to the far right's sails are the cuts made to welfare, which have alienated part of the population.
The analysis of Sweden's problems, however, is diametrically opposed when one listens to the words of Social Democrat Andreas Schönström, according to whom in Sweden "we have the lowest crime rate since 1996. And the trend shows a decrease." "It is true," he added, "that we have a serious gang problem, with shootings that are very, very troubling. But, I repeat, the crime our fellow citizens most often encounter is bicycle theft."
It nonetheless remains very likely that the elections will be won by the "red-green" coalition led by the outgoing Social Democratic prime minister Stefan Lofven. Nor is it out of the question that second place could be taken by the "bourgeois" bloc of Conservative leader Ulf Kristersson (who could, however, be overtaken on the right). No one, though, will be able to obtain an absolute majority in the Riksdag, Stockholm's parliament. Hence SD's strength: should the moderate right achieve a good result, it could theoretically decide to ally itself with the extremists in an attempt to form a government.
