The era of American coal is over. The country, which until last century produced most of its electricity from one of the fossil fuels with the highest climate impact, could see the use of this fuel collapse within a few years. This is not merely a matter of environment or politics — the current positions of the American government on coal are well known — but rather a set of factors linked above all to the market and to the unstoppable growth of renewables in the United States. And the projections are clear: as early as 2021, solar, wind and hydroelectric power will surpass coal as the main source of energy production.

The end of coal

During the first ten years of the new millennium, coal provided roughly half of energy production. But by the end of that first decade, according to the American Energy Information Administration (Eia), its use declined sharply, mainly due to the abundance of cheap natural gas. But it was above all the growth of renewables that dethroned coal. As reported by CNN, solar alone will grow by 17 per cent next year, while wind will grow by 14 per cent, surpassing hydroelectric production for the first time.

Coal, meanwhile, is seeing its decline accelerate rapidly: total electricity generation from coal-fired power plants collapsed to 28 per cent in 2018, whereas in 2010 it covered nearly half of electricity production — one of the lowest levels since 1979. "Coal is an expensive technology that can no longer compete," said Kingsmill Bond of Carbon Tracker, speaking to CNN. By 2020, according to the Eia, it will account for "only" 20 per cent.

Emissions continue to rise

This is revealed by the recent report from the Global Carbon Project, released just ahead of Cop25. The increase is slower compared to 2018. The modest growth in 2019 is in fact due to the decline in global coal consumption. Early estimates suggest that CO2 emissions from coal will fall by 0.9 per cent in 2019, while CO2 emissions from oil consumption will rise by the same amount. Gas is a different story — since 2012 it has been the dominant driver of global emissions.

And it is precisely the reduction in coal use that is driving a decrease in emissions in the United States in 2019, of around 1.7 per cent. CO2 emissions resulting from the decline in coal (-10 per cent) and oil consumption (-0.5 per cent) have been partly offset, however, by the increase in natural gas consumption (3.5 per cent). Despite the narrative of the coal industry — backed also by the current government — which sees coal as "indispensable" to the American economy, it appears that this fossil fuel has now lost its role. A role now consigned to the history books.