Millions of displaced people, thousands of deaths, continuous flows of refugees arriving in Europe. The consequences of the war in Syria, which broke out in March 2011 on the wave of Arab Spring protests, are plain to see. The causes that triggered it, however, may be more complex.

The political causes of the conflict

One of the main causes is political in nature: Bashar al-Assad's regime denied Syrians basic freedoms and the possibility of free elections for far too long, sparking the anti-government uprising that then escalated into civil war.

The role of drought

Among the factors that may have contributed to the outbreak of the conflict, there is also one that is both mundane and ancient: water. Between 2007 and 2010, the country was struck by a severe drought — the worst recorded in Syria in the last century — which left one million smallholder farmers without work and caused the rural population to migrate to cities. A study published in March in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences states that the drought that afflicted Syria exacerbated social unrest by worsening pre-existing political instability.

War and climate change

According to the Anglo-American researchers, the water crisis, brought about by declining winter rainfall and rising temperatures, was probably made worse by human-caused climate change. "We're not saying the drought caused the war," explained Richard Seager, a climatologist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University and co-author of the study. "What we think is that, together with all the other triggering factors, it helped push events past the point of no return."

The link between natural resources and political stability

Beyond climate change, Syria's water shortage may also be attributed to the unsustainable management of aquifers, which were over-exploited until irrigation wells ran dry. The case of Syria confirms how the effects of environmental degradation and global warming can significantly affect a country's political stability, with consequences of global reach.

One single planet

It is like the famous idea that the flap of a butterfly's wings can cause a hurricane on the other side of the planet. The world is a single, interconnected entity; it is not divided into watertight compartments. Borders and frontiers are nothing but lines drawn on maps; wars that break out in distant territories can have knock-on effects even on other nations that believe themselves to be unaffected.

Climate refugees on the rise

The international meeting Environmental Justice and Climate Change, held in Rome on 10 September, revealed that climate change will have negative consequences for efforts to reduce poverty, causing an increase in malnutrition and generating up to 250 million climate refugees in the coming years. Italian Environment Minister Gian Luca Galletti, opening the conference, noted that "everyone must take their own responsibility; the path to take is not just one of money, but of a great moral and ethical commitment."

At the root of migration

It may be stating the obvious, but trying to address the causes of migration rather than attempting to control it is the better solution. The environmental causes of wars should not be underestimated; food and, above all, water will become ever more precious. Restoring countries' natural systems — and consequently their economies — would help reduce poverty and conflict.