15 March marks the seventh year of civil war in Syria, as the world witnesses a global backlash against refugees, conditions for asylum in neighbouring countries become increasingly harsh and unwelcoming, and a series of Syrian government victories fuel a misleading rhetoric that Syria is a safe place to return to.

The result of this combination of factors is that over the course of 2018 hundreds of thousands of refugees risk being forced to return to Syria, despite the ongoing violence and bombing that continues to put civilian lives at risk.

Episodes such as those of Aleppo, Raqqa and Ghouta, the agreement between the European Union and Turkey, and the massive influx of refugees towards the Greek coast have brought international attention back to this country ravaged by violence. But after seven years, and following the stalling of peace talks in Geneva and Astana, the international community is tending to show a degree of fatigue and a worrying inclination to abandon the idea of a political solution and to accept that only a military solution will be capable of putting an end to one of the most violent conflicts of the century.

"Beyond media narratives, with a lens often focused exclusively on areas under bombardment, those of us who work in the field every day are able to offer some additional parameters to build a complete picture of the situation, after seven years of war," says Victor Velasco, head of the Emergency Group at Azione contro la fame.

5 points to frame the humanitarian situation in Syria

1. 2017 was a record year for displacement: 2.8 million people (7,665 every day) left their homes fleeing violence. But, trapped by the worsening situation in neighbouring countries, many families were unable to leave Syria and fled for the second, third or fourth time in just a few years. At this moment there are 1 million Syrians displaced within the country;
2. the displaced — half of whom are children — not only leave behind their homes, schools and livelihoods, often with severe post-traumatic stress, but over the past two years incidents of child labour, forced marriage and gender-based violence have increased;
3. in 2017 the number of people in areas with difficult access to humanitarian aid was reduced thanks to the "pacification" of certain areas in the south and east of the country, falling from 4.5 to nearly 3 million people. However, 410,000 people are still living in ten locations besieged by different factions in the conflict, including Eastern Ghouta, Yarmouk, and Fouae Kefraya. When they are not being bombed, hyperinflation or shortages of basic goods seriously endanger the population's food security;
4. of the 5 million refugees in neighbouring countries — 3.6 million in Turkey, 1 million in Lebanon, 658,000 in Jordan, 247,000 in Iraq and 127,000 in Egypt, according to official figures — 80 per cent live in poverty. The quality of asylum has been reduced, despite the efforts of humanitarian organisations such as Azione contro la fame to cover basic needs, and their opportunities to earn a living remain very limited by their legal status, as they are unable to work or move freely;
5. the apparent de-escalation of violence in certain areas of the country is driving the forced return of the population. The report Dangerous ground, presented in February by Azione contro la fame, Save the Children and the Norwegian refugee council (Nrc) among other organisations, shows that the number of Syrians who have returned home has risen from 560,000 to 721,000, but for every returnee there were a further three newly displaced people as a result of the war. The UN estimates that in 2018 a further one and a half million Syrians will be displaced.

Nevertheless, with conditions for many refugees in the region deteriorating and with very few opportunities for resettlement in other countries, many Syrians could genuinely feel compelled to return to Syria.

While Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey have shown considerable generosity in the past, the lack of political will on the part of first-world countries to help Syrian refugees has created the sense that closing borders and returning refugees is justified.

What options do refugees have?

As far as refugees are concerned, it appears that to date they have only three options: return, integrate in the host country or be resettled in a third country.

The first option is entirely ruled out by security conditions. The Dangerous ground report highlights the enormous damage to both public and private infrastructure across the country: for example, only one in five people surveyed from north-western Syria reported that their home was still intact, and it is estimated that one in three schools has been damaged, destroyed or repurposed. Not to mention the fact that hospitals have been systematically targeted: in Eastern Ghouta, six hospitals were attacked, causing deaths and injuries and leaving thousands of men, women and children without the most basic healthcare.

The second option is increasingly difficult in countries that host a disproportionate number of refugees on their territory, unless the international community decides to accompany that effort with adequate resources and to make the promised aid effective. But in the first months of 2018 only 5 per cent of the humanitarian appeal had been funded, and over the previous three years only half of needs had been met.

The third option requires a political will that has shown few signs of materialising until now. Indeed, in 2017 the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (Unhcr) more than halved its resettlement proposals for Syrian refugees compared to the previous year and, to date, only 3 per cent of vulnerable Syrian refugees have been resettled in wealthy countries — a scandalously low percentage.

These figures alone are enough to understand that rebuilding the country's shattered infrastructure will be an enormous and costly challenge. The continuation of violence and bombing and the scarcity of access to primary services — above all access to food and drinking water — makes the repatriation of Syrian refugees, even if voluntary, extremely dangerous. However much many Syrian refugees may want to return home, we absolutely cannot allow it.

Inside Syria, while peace remains a distant prospect, the top priority of Action Against Hunger is to provide assistance to the population directly affected by the conflict. Humanitarian needs show no sign of abating: the 2018 humanitarian appeal is 4.7 per cent higher than in 2017. We will continue to deliver our aid and, when the time comes, we will commit to ensuring the safe return of refugees to their homeland. But that time is not now.

This is the humanitarian picture at the close of the seventh anniversary of the conflict. A picture that we should all be able to see — and to change.