• A study by the universities of Bristol and Cardiff for WaterAid shows that northern Italy is becoming like Ethiopia, with prolonged periods of drought alternating with disastrous floods.
• The global trend is one of climate risk reversal: areas that were once arid are being hit by heavy rainfall, and vice versa.
• WaterAid is calling on leaders engaged in the upcoming Cop28 to commit to genuine climate adaptation policies.

Fleeing the drought of the Horn of Africa — Ethiopia, for example — only to arrive in Italy after a thousand hardships and find oneself, cruelly, in a more or less analogous situation. That is the story suggested by a study carried out by British researchers from the universities of Bristol and Cardiff and published by the NGO WaterAid, which used Italy as a Western benchmark for the climate changes affecting several countries in the Global South, from Ethiopia itself to Pakistan, from Ghana to Uganda. The study highlights how global warming is altering rainfall patterns in various parts of the world, giving rise to a phenomenon the authors define as climate risk reversal. As far as we are directly concerned, the conclusion is that northern Italy is becoming like Ethiopia: our climate, especially in the north of the country, is growing increasingly arid and unstable — just like that of the Horn of Africa, which is experiencing its fifth consecutive season of poor rainfall and insufficient harvests.

WaterAid Press @WaterAidPress

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Italy's extreme drought mirrors climate in Ethiopia as climate change creates 'whiplash' of extremes news.sky.com/story/italys-e…

#ClimateWhiplash 🌎@wateraid
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Northern Italy is becoming like Ethiopia

The study suggests that, in practice, regions that were previously subject to frequent droughts now experience floods more often, and vice versa. Among the areas analysed, northern Italy and the southern Ethiopian region of Shabelle show a similar trend: both have seen the number of extreme drought periods double since 2000, creating an increasingly arid climate reminiscent of the Horn of Africa. The Shabelle river, a vital source of water for Somalia, has experienced the worst drought conditions in the region, and can be considered in broad terms the equivalent of the Po, given that northern Italy has recorded rainfall and river flow values well below the historical average, especially over the past two years. In this sense, northern Italy is becoming like Ethiopia.

However, the drought in both regions is interrupted by episodes of sudden, intense rainfall that cause devastating floods, landslides and extensive damage. This summer, for example, Lombardy was struck by exceptional floods that brought entire cities and their infrastructure to their knees. Scientists attribute this phenomenon to increased evaporation and rainfall variability caused by global warming, which creates a whiplash effect on the climate.

WaterAid Press @WaterAidPress

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❗️Climate Whiplash: extreme fluctuations between drought and flooding are devastating millions of lives | Exclusive @wateraid research reveals⬇️

wateraid.org/uk/media/Water…

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As well as shedding very clear light on the link between migration and climate change, and suggesting that we ourselves could soon find ourselves in the uncomfortable role of "economic migrants" if northern Italy truly is becoming like Ethiopia, WaterAid explains that the study, published on the eve of the United Nations Cop28 climate conference, aims to raise awareness among world leaders of the need to invest in robust and resilient water systems capable of withstanding climate extremes. The non-governmental organisation that commissioned the research also calls for climate adaptation programmes to include access to clean water, sanitation and hygiene, especially in low- and middle-income countries, where communities are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Living witnesses to change

The study also draws on the testimonies of people affected by climate extremes in different parts of the world. In Pakistan, WaterAid spoke with Soni Bheel, an 83-year-old woman who saw her village destroyed by floods in 2022. Soni recounted that when she was a child local farming thrived and villagers enjoyed good health, but that the climate has changed drastically in recent years. "Our village was swept away by the flood, but it taught us a fundamental lesson: we must build our homes on higher ground to protect them from future floods. We are now raising our houses on a platform two feet high (just over half a metre, ed.)."

WaterAid Press @WaterAidPress

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"We believe... changes to flood and drought hazard frequency and magnitude are something most places on the planet will have to address.”

Today's new climate analysis was carried out by scientists from the Universities of Bristol and Cardiff, @_blissville and @_kmichaelides.

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In Uganda, meanwhile, the eastern region of Mbale is experiencing far wetter conditions, which have caused unprecedented flooding over the past three years. WaterAid interviewed Okecho Opondo, a retired primary school teacher, who stated that the changing weather conditions are causing enormous problems. "We are in total confusion. The months that used to be rainy are now dry. When the rains come, they can be short but intense, causing flooding. On other occasions the rainy periods are too long, leading to the destruction of infrastructure and crop failure. And then the dry spells can be very long, further leading to crop failure and hunger."

The authors of the study emphasise that climate breakdown is not bringing about monolithic change, but rather greater variability and unpredictability in weather events. These are factors that, according to Katerina Michaelides, professor of dryland hydrology at the Cabot Institute for the Environment at the University of Bristol and lead co-author of the research, "need to be considered to support climate adaptation for human life and livelihoods around the world."