It has now been a month since 24 February, the day Russian troops entered the Ukrainian territories of the Donbas, triggering the conflict. What Russian president Vladimir Putin had described as a lightning war still seems far from over and is increasingly beginning to resemble a war of attrition — a conflict aimed at bringing Ukraine to its knees and forcing it to reach an agreement. The Russian army appears to be on the verge of capturing the city of Mariupol, in the south-east of the country, while the capital Kyiv is, for now, holding out against the siege. Thousands of casualties have been recorded among the Ukrainian civilian population and in both armies, although the figures are difficult to verify. Meanwhile, the first analyses of how this conflict might end are beginning to circulate. We have gathered five of the possible scenarios put forward by analysts.

• A peace agreement
• A long war
• A change of government in Russia
• A Russian victory
• A world war

Scenario 1: a peace agreement

The first scenario identified is that of a peace agreement. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are still ongoing. Over these four weeks since the start of the conflict, the two diplomatic delegations have met on several occasions, but no compromise has yet been reached. Even though the talks are progressing slowly, some analysts argue that the very fact Russia agreed to meet with Ukraine would seem to presuppose at least a minimal attempt to find a diplomatic solution.

Alexander Rodnyansky, adviser to Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, told Politico magazine that reaching a compromise with Russia would be "relatively easy" on certain points, but that the country has no intention of giving up its territory. "We need guarantees for our security," he said. "If we got those, it would be enough to defer NATO membership, especially given that NATO has already turned us down." Rodnyansky added that Ukraine would equally be willing to proceed with what Moscow calls the "denazification" of the country — that is, renaming streets dedicated to Nazis or Nazi sympathisers from the Second World War. "They need to sell something to the Russian people," he explained. "But renaming a few streets costs us nothing."

After all, Putin needs to find a way to emerge from this conflict with his reputation intact, at least in the eyes of Russia. For this reason, some analysts believe that the ongoing military losses and the sanctions imposed by the West could push Putin to find a face-saving agreement and bring the war to a close.

Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said that one option could be Ukrainian neutrality, along the lines of that of Austria and Sweden. These two models of neutrality are, however, very different from each other: Austria's is enshrined in the 1955 Constitution and can therefore be suspended only through a constitutional amendment. In Sweden's case, by contrast, the reference is to the country's historical neutrality, which is not in fact provided for in its Constitution.

Ukraine had initially stated that it was not prepared to cede its territorial integrity. At the end of February, Russia recognised the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics — the decision that set the entire conflict in motion. "This will be the most difficult point [to negotiate]," Rodnyansky clarified. "[Russian soldiers] came and occupied our lands. It's obvious we won't say 'fine, go ahead'," he concluded. In recent days, however, the Kyiv government has said it is willing to make concessions, including over the territories of Crimea and the Donbas.

Rodnyansky also fears that Moscow is using the negotiations to prepare a more brutal assault. This concern is shared by several analysts who suspect that the peace talks are nothing more than a smokescreen. "The word 'ceasefire' for Putin is synonymous with 'reload'," notes Garry Kasparov, the celebrated chess player and Russian activist, in a BBC article.

Scenario 2: a long war

In Putin's plans, the war in Ukraine was meant to be a lightning war, but after a month of fighting, that plan is beginning to look less achievable. This is why some identify a long war as the second scenario — a conflict that could last years.

The Russian army is contending with constant setbacks, increasingly low troop morale and a range of logistical problems. Set powerfully against their discontent is the courageous — and perhaps somewhat unexpected — resistance of the Ukrainian forces, which is significantly slowing their advance, despite operating with far fewer personnel and weapons.

Some believe the invasion has reached a stalemate, while others think the offensive has instead culminated and is therefore not so much paused as stopped: Russian troops would have reached their ceiling in logistical and military terms. This is the view of Frank Ledwidge, professor of military strategy at the University of Portsmouth, who in an interview with broadcaster Al Jazeera explained that "Russia's offensive has culminated, particularly from a military standpoint."

This could translate into a temporary pause by Moscow to bring in the weapons it needs and work out how to proceed. "This is an operational pause," Ledwidge explained. "They are trying to figure out how to move forward, something they have never done since the start of the conflict. They are moving quickly to decide their next steps. Meanwhile, Ukraine has managed to carry out some successful attacks."

This scenario requires more time than the others — something neither Russia nor Ukraine has, albeit for different reasons. Russia must contend with a war that has lasted far longer than expected, one that carries a heavy economic cost and is dividing society. Ukraine, meanwhile, is living through a gravely serious humanitarian catastrophe that, within the very first weeks of the conflict, confronted the whole of Europe with one of the largest migration flows in history.

Scenario 3: a change of government in Russia

However unlikely, Putin himself could be ousted. According to Sir Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of War Studies at King's College London, at this point "a regime change is as likely in Kyiv as it is in Moscow".

The Russian president's mandate expires – at least on paper – in 2024, but as mentioned, the consequences of this situation are beginning to make themselves felt within Russian society too. The freedoms of ordinary citizens have been curtailed more and more. Hundreds of protesters have been arrested during anti-war marches, and numerous international media outlets have left the country for fear of reprisals following the approval of a law providing for up to 15 years in prison for anyone spreading "false news".

Even the elite of oligarchs who normally surround and support Putin is beginning to waver. Some of them, some members of parliament and even an oil company, Lukoil, have called for a ceasefire or at least a pause in the fighting.

For this reason, even if it is unlikely to happen, the possibility of Putin being removed from power cannot be entirely ruled out. And the coup could be carried out by his own inner circle, which over the years has steadily shrunk. "His security team is very good, but they're good right up until the moment they're not," Eliot A. Cohen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, told Al Jazeera. "This has happened several times in Soviet and Russian history."

It should also be remembered that Anatoly Chubais, Putin's special envoy, resigned from his post and left the country in protest against the war. Meanwhile, Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff, are appearing in public less and less.

According to the BBC, if Putin were deposed, the West could promise the new regime to ease some sanctions and open up new diplomatic relations. For now it seems unlikely, but not impossible, especially if those who benefit from his rule come to understand that he can no longer defend their interests.

Scenario 4: a Russian victory

Despite all the difficulties Russia is encountering, some analysts believe it could still win the conflict and urge against underestimating its capacity to adapt.

On the one hand, it is true that Russia has logistical problems and issues with troop morale, but it is equally true that it remains militarily superior to Ukraine. Russia has already employed the tactic of attritional warfare in other conflicts, grinding down both the army and the civilian population supporting it. This was the case with the siege of the city of Grozny in Chechnya, where fighting went on for months, as well as in Syria, where Idlib and Aleppo endured fierce bombardments that also struck civilian targets such as schools and hospitals.

Furthermore, it is important to look at the broader picture: Moscow is recruiting mercenaries from Syria and is relying on the Wagner Group, a private security company of dubious morality.

According to the BBC, should Kyiv fall, a puppet government could be installed and Zelensky would be killed or forced to flee in order to form a government in exile. At that point, Putin would leave only the troops necessary to maintain order on the territory.

This scenario depends, however, on a great many factors: first and foremost on the ability of Russian forces to seize their objectives and on the number of soldiers deployed on Ukrainian territory. But it would also mean that the Ukrainian spirit of resistance, which has allowed the country to hold its own against the Russian advance until now, would have to give way.

Even if Russia were to succeed in capturing strategic points, Putin would still have to contend with the occupation and any popular uprisings. This is why some believe that, in the event of a victory, Putin might decide to annex the whole of Ukraine to Russia, just as he did with Crimea. At that point, Ukraine – as a state – would cease to exist.

Scenario 5: a world war

The final scenario, perhaps the most catastrophic, would be a direct consequence of Russia's annexation of Ukraine: a conflict that expands to include other states.

Putin's territorial ambitions remain a question mark, but his nostalgia for the years of the Soviet Union could be a sign that, if he were to succeed in Ukraine, he might seek to reannex territories such as Moldova, Belarus and Georgia, which are not part of Nato but which, conversely, were part of either the Soviet Union or the Russian empire. In that case, Ukraine would be only the starting point.

A risk underscored by Ukrainian president Zelensky himself during his address to the Italian Parliament, delivered on the morning of Tuesday 22 March. "Ukraine is the gateway for the Russian army, but he wants to enter Europe," he said, stressing that Putin's aim would be to "influence the lives" of all Europeans and "have control over [our] politics".

Few believe that a Putin attack on Nato is likely, not least because it would amount to a considerable nuclear risk. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has already said that "a third world war can only be a nuclear one". According to analysts, this kind of statement should be interpreted as a warning to the United States and Europe, to discourage them from implementing, for example, a "no-fly zone" over Ukraine — which has indeed not been established. This is why Nato would remain the greatest deterrent against this scenario, because Putin knows full well that declaring war on any one of its member states would be tantamount to going to war with all of them, as stipulated by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

But this conflict has shown that the situation can deteriorate within hours and that Putin is prepared to break every international law and agreement, so any scenario remains possible.