Bangladesh and Myanmar (formerly Burma) reached an agreement on Tuesday 16 January, with the aim of allowing approximately 650,000 Muslim Rohingya refugees to return "within two years" to the western Burmese province in which they lived until autumn 2017, when soldiers and local militias launched a violent ethnic crackdown against them.

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300 Rohingya repatriations per day planned over two years

The decision was made official at the end of a meeting held in the Myanmar capital, Naypyidaw, attended by the secretary-general of the Bangladeshi Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mohammed Shahidul Haque, and his Burmese counterpart Myint Thu. The parties committed to completing the operation by early 2020 and to beginning it "within the coming days", according to information provided to the AFP news agency by the Bangladeshi ambassador to Myanmar. The repatriations are expected to take place at a rate of 300 per day.

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More than half a million #Rohingya refugees have fled to #Bangladesh in less than 5 months

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The first wave is expected to involve approximately 30,000 people, who will be housed in 625 dwellings currently under construction in Maungdaw district, in the north of Arakan state. Five transit camps will also be built in order to carry out the "identity checks" required by the Burmese government. The latter — which has never recognised the Rohingya Muslims as belonging to one of the 135 national ethnic groups — has indicated that it will only accept refugees who can prove they were residents of Myanmar before the exodus.

The complex conditions imposed by the Myanmar government

This is a clause that will need to be verified with great care, given that Rohingya people are often without documents, precisely because they are "de facto stateless". Many may also have lost their temporary residence permits during the desperate flight to Bangladesh. Also yet to be verified are the conditions in which the refugees will be forced to live over the next two years, as well as whether the return home can be carried out in complete safety.

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Myanmar and Bangladesh are about to return Rohingya refugees. Rights groups say it’s too soon ti.me/2FKrrIh

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One final aspect to understand is that relating to the genuine willingness of the refugees to return home. Many of them may fear having to face once again the hatred of a section of the Burmese population, which, according to reports from international media, took part in summary executions, mass rape and the burning of entire Rohingya villages. The non-governmental organisation Amnesty International itself spoke of "alarming haste" and of a "premature repatriation" for people who have suffered such devastating violence.

The Rohingya will be repatriated. Agreement between Bangladesh and Myanmar