The 2022 general election results reward Fratelli d'Italia as the leading party. The Lega collapses. A poor result for the PD, with Letta on his way out. M5S is the top force in the south.
The centre-right coalition has won the election. This is the verdict already anticipated by the exit polls that followed one another through the night after polling stations closed at 11:00 pm on 25 September. With a handful of sections still to be counted, the results of the 2022 general election are now clear. The coalition has secured a majority in both the Chamber and the Senate, with Fratelli d'Italia, led by Giorgia Meloni, as the leading party, with a clear margin over coalition partners Lega and Forza Italia: "A clear indication for a government led by Fratelli d'Italia," Giorgia Meloni said during the night.
According to official data, the centre-right coalition obtained 44 per cent of the vote, 7 percentage points more than in 2018. Fratelli d'Italia, led by Giorgia Meloni, established itself as the leading party in the country with over 26 per cent, while Lega and Forza Italia stand at 9 and 8 per cent respectively. With this result, Fratelli d'Italia received three times as many votes as its main coalition allies, further underlining its own leadership and that of Meloni on the winning side. Despite the coalition result, the outcome of this election could raise questions for the prospective minority shareholders in the next government, Silvio Berlusconi and, above all, Matteo Salvini. While the 8 per cent obtained by Forza Italia is broadly in line with the 2018 results, the Lega emerges from the polls extremely diminished: suffice it to recall that in the 2018 general election Salvini's party had obtained 17 per cent, a figure that had risen to 34 per cent at the 2019 European elections. Salvini held a press conference in the morning, where he did not address the issue of the Lega's leadership, which many observers considered to have been called into question by the disappointing result: "It is clear that the election has rewarded the opposition mounted by Fratelli d'Italia. Today we are commenting on a result that, as Lega, does not satisfy us. I did not work for this. Being in government has cost us. We put work for the country ahead of the party's interests, but I would do it again. But with this 9 per cent we will be part of a government in which we will play a leading role." Internal crises aside, with today's victory the coalition secures a parliamentary majority, but it is not yet clear whether it will reach the two-thirds of seats that would constitute an absolute majority.
The centre-left coalition closed this electoral round with 26 per cent of the vote, a figure well below that of the opposing coalition. The Partito Democratico did not live up to the forecasts of some pre-election polls that placed it broadly on a par with Fratelli d'Italia, collecting 19 per cent of the vote — slightly above the 18.7 per cent of the 2018 election, and the worst result in its history. Among the other coalition members, Sinistra Italiana and the Greens cleared the 3 per cent threshold, reaching 3.63, while Emma Bonino's party +Europa stands at 2.83. Having failed to secure the minimum threshold to enter Parliament, its votes will be redistributed to the rest of the coalition. At the press conference held late in the morning, the leader of the Partito Democratico stated that "in the coming days we will convene the party bodies and activate the procedures to bring about a congress. It will be an opportunity to reflect on what the next Partito Democratico will want to be. I will ensure the party's leadership until the congress, but I will not stand as a candidate again. I believe that the younger generations must relaunch the party in Italy and in Europe."
Among the results of the 2022 general election, the 15.4 per cent of the Movimento 5 Stelle under Giuseppe Conte stands out without question. The political force that had triggered the government crisis leading to Draghi's resignation managed to reverse a negative trajectory that had persisted since the 2019 European elections. In particular, the figures emerging from this election bear witness to the strength of the Movimento in the southern regions, where it is the leading party.
The Third Pole, represented by the alliance between the parties of Carlo Calenda and Matteo Renzi, obtains 7.7 per cent of the vote, remaining below the ten per cent set as a target before the vote, but coming very close to the result of Forza Italia, which it was aiming to displace as the representative party for the centrist electorate.
The 2022 general election stands as the least participated in the history of republican Italy. According to data from the Ministry of the Interior, turnout this year — partly due to only a single day being available for voting — stopped at 64 per cent, a full ten percentage points below 2018. The region with the highest turnout was Emilia Romagna, at 71.97 per cent, while Calabria brought up the rear in terms of participation with 50.79 per cent.
In sharp contrast with the election results in domestic constituencies is the vote of Italians resident abroad. The leading party in the Overseas Constituency is in fact the Partito Democratico, which here reaches 28 per cent, followed by the centre-right coalition Lega per Salvini premier – Forza Italia – Fratelli d'Italia, which stops at 26 per cent. In third place comes the Movimento Associativo Italiani all'Estero, with 12 per cent, followed by the Movimento 5 Stelle at 8 per cent.
The results of the 2022 general election have also determined which political groupings will not enter Parliament. Impegno Civico, the party of Luigi Di Maio, fails to reach the threshold, and its votes will not even be redistributed to the centre-left coalition with which it stood. Joining it outside both the Chamber and the Senate are Italexit, led by Gianluigi Paragone, Unione Popolare, led by Luigi de Magistris, and Italia Sovrana e Popolare, led by Marco Rizzo.
Among those closely watched in the single-member constituencies, Ilaria Cucchi — sister of Stefano Cucchi — is elected in Florence, Claudio Lotito — president of the football club Lazio — in Molise, and Silvio Berlusconi in Monza. Emma Bonino loses in Rome and Pier Ferdinando Casini beats Vittorio Sgarbi in Bologna. Also out is the Lega's Simone Pillon.
