What will be the impact of climate change on food security, and consequently on the fight against world hunger, over the coming decades? The answer comes from a new indicator presented at Cop 21 in Paris by the World Food Programme (Wfp) and the British research institute Met Office Hadley Centre.

Millions of people at risk of hunger

The two organisations have calculated how the food insecurity rate will change in the countries currently most affected. A tool published online makes it possible to cross-reference data on climate change adaptation policies that governments may introduce with data on the level of greenhouse gas emissions that will be released into the atmosphere. Both factors allow for three scenarios (low, medium and high intensity) and make it possible to assess how food insecurity will evolve at two points in time: 2050 and 2080.

"To build the maps," explains Richard Choularton, head of the Wfp's Climate and Disaster Risk Reduction Programme, "we used a wide range of information. From data on agricultural systems to those related to access to drinking water. And also the impacts of climate change on forests and the ability of certain areas to secure the necessary quantities of food." Thus, for example, by assuming that CO2 emissions will remain high over the coming decades and that — at the same time — adaptation policies in the countries most affected by food insecurity will prove insufficient, it is possible to see that the situation will deteriorate dramatically. Across nearly the whole of Africa, in India, in south-east Asia, in Central America and in a number of Latin American countries, the situation could become catastrophic.

Tackling hunger requires action on multiple fronts

"This tool," explains Ertharin Cousin, Executive Director of the Wfp, "allows us to understand how the problem of world hunger will change depending on the responses we give to climate change. The scenario before us indicates that for hundreds of millions of people, environmental problems will multiply the risks, if adequate adaptation policies are not introduced and if greenhouse gas emissions do not decrease."

And relying on just one of the two factors will not be enough: the data show that with robust adaptation systems but, at the same time, high emissions (or vice versa), the populations of dozens of countries will not be able to escape hunger. "This is," Cousin concludes, "a warning. The positive news is that we know the future is in our hands." And in those of Cop 21.