Solar, wind, hydroelectric. With the European project S2S4E, it is possible to know the output from renewable sources thanks to climate models and weather forecasts. It will also be useful for predicting extreme weather events.
It is well known that renewables and their energy output depend closely on weather and climate conditions. Sun, wind and water cannot be considered constant energy sources, and as a result managing their output, demand peaks and integration with electricity grids and the energy mix is no simple matter. To address the problem, the European project S2S4E has recently been launched, funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. Led by the Barcelona Supercomputing Center, the project brings together five European research centres, including Enea, and energy operators such as the French company Edf. The project provides a software platform capable of forecasting electricity production from renewable sources up to three months ahead.
The S2S4E service is able to provide forecasts for precipitation, river flow, wind speed and solar radiation from one week to three months ahead. A platform that could thus be used by electricity companies, technicians or project developers to better assess energy production and make the European electricity sector more resilient to climate variability and extreme events.
"With strong growth in renewable energy, the influence of climate events on the energy market is increasing," says Christoph Elsässer, energy meteorology analyst at the German utility Enbw. "State-of-the-art weather forecasts are already fundamental to success in the energy sector, and their importance will certainly continue to grow in the future."
The software, available free of charge until 2020, allows users to create their own profile and navigate through a dedicated graphical interface covering all European energy production. It is possible to select a renewable source — from solar, wind and hydroelectric — and find out whether average output will be higher or lower, forecast wind speed, or the amount of solar radiation.
This project will be fundamental in developing new research and methods capable of gaining a deeper understanding of near-future climate conditions. And for the first time, designing a tool capable of integrating seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts with energy production and electricity demand.
"This service represents, at a global level, the first real attempt to put current scientific knowledge about the climate at the service of the energy market, with the aim of increasing energy production from renewable sources and ensuring the security of electricity grids against blackouts and supply intermittency caused by the variability of renewables," explains Irene Cionni of the Enea laboratory for Climate Modelling and Impacts in a press release.
The software, developed specifically for the energy sector, will be used to forecast extreme weather events in a climate that is already changing. It will be useful for public administrations, emergency services and organisations in planning possible interventions.
"Many people often think of climate change as something that will happen in 20–30 years' time, but it is happening now, with new heat and precipitation records constantly being broken," says the project coordinator Albert Soret of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center. "Current methodologies based on past data do not account for this climate variability, so we need tools to help us adapt to these changes." In the new climate, it will be essential to know how and where a given event will occur, not only in order to know how much energy can be produced at any given moment.