Why is a referendum on independence being held in Catalonia if it is already an autonomous region? Everything is in place for the vote – even though it has been declared unconstitutional. Will it go ahead, and if so, what will Catalans decide?
Catalonia has its own parliament, its own anthem, its own flag and two official languages, Castilian (Spanish) and Catalan. Like all 17 Spanish regions, it is an autonomous community. Its government, a coalition of separatist parties from both the right and the left, would like the region to be free to decide whether to "break away" from the government in Madrid and become independent. To that end, it has called a referendum, theoretically scheduled for 1 October, triggering a deep political crisis at the national level, with the Spanish courts and the central government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy on one side, and the Catalan government, or Generalitat, led by President Carles Puigdemont, and tens of thousands of demonstrators who have taken to the streets in support of the referendum on the other.
On 9 June, Puigdemont announced that a consultation on independence would be held in which citizens would be asked to answer the question: "Do you want Catalonia to be an independent republic?" The date had been set for 1 October, after the regional parliament adopted the Ley del referéndum de autodeterminación vinculante sobre la independencia de Cataluña on 6 September – backed by 72 votes in favour, the minimum number required, while 52 parliamentarians abstained by leaving the chamber in protest. Under the law, if the "yes" vote were to win, the result would be binding, despite the referendum having no quorum requirement. If the "no" vote were to win instead, early regional elections would be called.
The Spanish Constitutional Court did not hesitate to weigh in on the law's approval: the very next day, it suspended it on the grounds that it violates the Constitution. The Spanish government intervened forcefully to enforce the ruling. Fourteen officials of the Catalan government involved in organising the referendum were arrested, the offices of local government bodies and of the non-profit Fundació puntCat – which manages Catalan internet domains (those ending in .cat) – were searched, electoral materials such as posters, ballot boxes and over 10 million ballot papers were seized, and Catalan government funds were frozen. In addition, the Constitutional Court imposed fines of between 6,000 and 12,000 euros per day on officials who continued to organise the referendum.
The Generalitat reacted sharply to the Madrid government's actions, including on social media, tweeting, for instance: "We believe the Spanish government has crossed the red line that separates it from authoritarian and repressive regimes."
"The Spanish state has in effect suspended Catalonia's self-governance" – this was Puigdemont's condemnation, who, in addition to arguing that "in doing so the Spanish government is violating the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union," made his government's intention to proceed with the vote clear. The Spanish Constitution itself provides for the central government to intervene directly in the affairs of an autonomous community when that community fails to meet its constitutional obligations – but in theory, as stipulated by Article 155, the suspension of self-governance can only take place if backed by a Senate majority.
In practice, the actions of Mariano Rajoy's government could backfire should the referendum go ahead. As demonstrated by the numerous spontaneous demonstrations in Catalan squares in favour of independence and against the central government, and by the distribution of one million ballot papers by referendum supporters, the harshness of the executive's response could push more citizens into the arms of Puigdemont's camp. He argues that:
"We have arrived at this unacceptable situation after asking Madrid to open a political dialogue dozens of times… instead of engaging in dialogue, the Spanish government has chosen to rely on the police and the courts, taking us beyond the limits of any self-respecting democracy."
It is over the past ten years that the fuse of Catalan nationalism has ignited in such an explosive manner. In 2006, the Catalan and Spanish parliaments approved a statute to guarantee Catalonia greater powers and control over its finances, an expansion of the 1979 Statute of Autonomy, the document in which Catalan "nationality" and the Catalan language are officially recognised as official (alongside Castilian). This strengthening of autonomy was supported by then Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero – who pursued progressive social reforms such as the legalisation of same-sex marriage.
In 2010, the Spanish Constitutional Court struck down certain parts of the Statute, arguing that there is no legal basis for recognising Catalonia as a "nation" within Spain. This sparked the anger of more than one million Catalans who took to the streets on 10 July of that year in a demonstration called "We are a nation, and we want to decide."
The Court's ruling coincided with a growth in Catalan nationalism, also fuelled by the economic crisis that hit Spain from 2008 onwards. Catalonia's population of around 7.5 million inhabitants accounts for 16 per cent of Spain's total, yet the region – the country's economic engine – generates approximately 20 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and 25 per cent of exports. The crisis helped inflame the passions of independence supporters, who argue that the region pays too much to the central state to resolve the problems of poorer ones: according to the Generalitat, the fiscal deficit – that is, the taxes it pays to the state minus the contributions it receives – amounts to around 15 million euros, equivalent to 8 per cent of regional GDP. The Treasury in Madrid, however, maintains that the figure was around 10 million euros in 2014, or 5 per cent of Catalan GDP. In this climate, separatists have advanced the ideology of nationalism as the only possible solution to the crisis, which brought Catalonia's unemployment to levels of 19 per cent.
