Hyperconnectivity, environmental awareness and the centrality of food. The Coop Report 2020 outlines the post Covid-19 changes in Italians' lifestyles.
On one hand, an Italy that is wounded and deeply worried; on the other, the desire to seize the opportunity for a fresh start. Pessimism and resilience. A sense of insecurity and a search for stability. Spending review and environmental awareness. This, in a nutshell, is the post-Covid-19 portrait of our country, captured by the Coop Report 2020 – Economia, consumi e stili di vita degli italiani di oggi e di domani, drawn up by the research office of Ancc-Coop (Associazione nazionale cooperative di consumatori), already available online and presented to the press in Milan on 10 September, in the presence of Coop Italia president Marco Pedroni and chief executive officer Maura Latini.
A document that, as well as recounting the current effects of the health emergency, opens a window onto the near future, seeking to outline what Italians' post-pandemic "new normal" will look like, between changes of direction and reconfirmations in our lifestyles and eating habits. To map out this picture, the Coop Report 2020 drew on two separate surveys called Italia 2021, il Next Normal degli italiani, both conducted during the month of August. The first involved a sample of 2,000 Italians, representative of the population aged over eighteen; while the second was addressed to the community of the italiani.coop website and selected 280 opinion leaders (including entrepreneurs, chief executive officers, directors and self-employed professionals) capable of anticipating the country's future trends more than others.
One of the most prominent aspects highlighted by the study is the risk of finding ourselves living in a bubble detached from reality. A metaphor for the state of isolation that all, or nearly all, of us experienced during this emergency and that, to a certain extent, we are still experiencing today — not only at a physical level, but also a psychological one.
Remaining anchored to the comfort zones of home and family, aided and abetted by smart working and the simplicity of an "on-demand life", can in fact turn into an insidious form of confinement, putting social interaction at risk and generating a self-referential information system. Suffice it to say that during the lockdown the number of hyperconnected young people rose by 250 per cent (reaching one million between March and May), and that three in ten Italians already expect to spend more time online in 2021. Within this trend lies another risk: that of falling into the trap of disinformation. Almost six in ten people say they came across at least one piece of fake news during the lockdown, and 31 per cent admit to having shared it, believing it to be real.
Beyond hyperconnectivity, the lockdown confinement also amplified other dysfunctional behaviours. For instance, the volume of calls to the gender-based violence helpline more than doubled, and there were also increases in severe relapses related to addictions and in the consumption of alcohol, online gaming and gambling. Proof — if any were needed — that social isolation also brings significant side effects with it.
While it is true that the emergency has demanded great sacrifices, it is equally true that Italians have been able to respond promptly, adjusting their spending and planning savings. A capacity for resilience, found above all in the middle class.
To get through the emergency, 84 per cent of the population postponed at least one project. Many put off travel, celebrations, medical appointments, the purchase of a new home or a car. But the most striking figures are those relating to life plans. Because of the pandemic, 200,000 people did not get married, 300,000 gave up on starting a new business, and 280,000 on having a child. This is perhaps the saddest legacy of Covid-19 which, as well as having claimed (to date) more than 35,600 lives in Italy, has dealt a further blow to our (already extremely low) birth rate, accelerating its decline at a pace that was not expected for another decade. The estimated result is alarming, pointing to a loss of 30,000 births in 2021.
The Coop Report 2020 gives us a projection of a 2021 in which the world of work will be more unstable but also more agile, with 70 per cent of experts convinced that unemployment and underemployment will increase and 53 per cent believing that smart working will continue to grow (though for the majority the right solution would be part-time remote working). For holidays, mobility will be strongly confined within Italy's borders and will be more sustainable (including on foot, by bicycle and by scooter), with a reduction in spending. Where possible, people will tend to move to medium-sized cities and to centres where work, services and entertainment can all be reached within fifteen minutes. An encouraging finding is the one that identifies the most environmentally sustainable smart city as the ideal city.
A portion of Italians also say they will pay greater attention to healthy food, hygiene and check-ups, with one in three Italians saying they would like to try a teleconsultation with their doctor. The general trend will be to reduce spending and consumption, directing them increasingly towards e-commerce. The home will be chosen as the preferred gathering place — open to friends, connected and green — with 39 per cent of respondents stating that they could not do without a garden (perhaps a consequence of the months of domestic "confinement", which demonstrated the importance of private outdoor space). In their free time, people will spend more time cooking or watching films and TV series on streaming platforms, at the expense of cinemas, concerts, nightclubs, theatres and museums, in favour of more home-based, safer entertainment. Many will roll up their sleeves, giving up domestic help and carers and personally taking on these commitments, also turning to DIY.
All things considered, the figures place Italians among the most pessimistic in Europe. More than one in two believes that in 2021 Italy's situation will be worse than it was in 2019, and the majority is convinced that it will take the country between two and five years (or more) to recover. The most pessimistic are those from lower income groups, women and the unemployed. More optimistic, understandably, are young people and higher income groups. Four in ten families fear that next year they will face serious financial difficulties; one in two fear that the pandemic will leave a negative legacy on their income. Sixty per cent fear they will have to dip into their savings or even ask for financial help from the government, banks and friends. To cope with all this, according to the Coop Report 2020, Italians will spend more time within their own four walls and will visit friends at home rather than meeting them at a restaurant or the cinema. For many, the spending review already under way will continue even when the situation improves, with cuts above all on meals out, clothing and entertainment.
Despite the rainbows hung on doors in recent months, the many displays of solidarity and the rediscovery of neighbourly relations in cities, "healing the wounds" of lockdown will take time. According to 38 per cent of respondents, we will find ourselves dealing with a more resentful and violent society, and more than half are convinced that we will ultimately emerge more selfish and angry. The rainbow here turns to black and white.
The experts interviewed foresee a world shifting ever further eastward, where Asian economies will dominate. Yet a glimmer of hope also emerges, tied to greater European solidarity and the opportunity on offer to our country, which has been severely hit by the consequences of the health and economic emergency. More than eight in ten believe that Italy's membership of the EU represents an advantage now more than ever. To re-emerge, Italy — which is facing the deepest recession since the post-war period — will need to make the most of the Recovery Fund. A not-to-be-missed opportunity for the Bel Paese to overcome its longstanding deficits and reimagine itself differently. The focus must be first and foremost on education, employment and digitalisation, but also on infrastructure and healthcare, and the country's strengths must be its tourism vocation, its industrial excellence, the agri-food sector and its cultural heritage.
It will therefore be essential to invest in human capital, with particular attention to schools, which would need structural change and a modernisation of teaching tools. The reopening of schools itself is causing some concern, and the large majority of parents admit to being sceptical about the preventive measures, doubting that pupils will truly respect social distancing rules and the requirement to wear masks.
The last line of defence in the post Covid-19 spending review will be food. Together with housing and health costs, Italians place the dining table at the heart of their lifestyle. In the Coop Report 2020, only 31 per cent say they want to save money by choosing cheaper products, bucking the trend compared with the rest of Europe.
Another major reversal generated by lockdown is the return to home cooking. While the Coop Report 2019 had captured a progressive retreat from the stove, the months spent in isolation showed Italians — and young people in particular — drawing closer to the kitchen again. This drove strong growth in sales of basic ingredients and a contraction in ready meals, towards which the market had been moving ever more decisively in the pre-Covid-19 period. Staying at home pushed many people to try their hand at home cooking, favouring healthy and sustainable food and learning recipes online. A trend that looks set to continue, by virtue of the combination of savings and quality it brings to the table.
Lockdown generated a genuine e-commerce boom, along with surges in delivery and mixed solutions such as click and collect, which allows customers to order online and pick up in person at the point of sale. Faster solutions, but also more expensive ones, which for this reason remain largely the preserve of the upper class. "The direction is clear and the broader picture is evident, even with the thousand tributaries a river in full flow can have," commented Maura Latini, chief executive of Coop Italia, emphasising the importance of keeping an open mind and taking nothing for granted. "Before lockdown, we had almost written off neighbourhood shops, which instead, thanks to digital technology, have become assets with a future." And while questions about e-commerce continue (will there be a single model or will we see several?), two legacies of the emergency are already taking shape: "A decline in footfall at points of sale, which will also require a rethink of spaces, and a change in the contents of the basket, oriented towards long-life products and away from ultra-fresh and perishable goods."
At the same time, the pandemic has caused "a step-change in certain trends already identified and set in motion by
Coop," Maura Latini continues. One of these is attention to the issue of sustainability, which Italians
appear to be increasingly focused on, as confirmed also by Coop's internal data.
The green awareness of Italians, in which we are investing heavily, was reconfirmed both during and after lockdown by our internal data.
Maura Latini, amministratore delegato Coop Italia
This is demonstrated by the data for the Vivi Verde organic products brand, which is "the top-selling organic brand in large-scale retail in Italy, with revenues of over 150 million in 2019, and has not stopped growing during and after lockdown, with a value trend of plus 9 per cent."
A demonstration of the fact that "Italians know very well that food quality means wellbeing and health" and that, despite current difficulties, "people continue to look with a careful eye to the needs of tomorrow."
In short, environmental awareness and the understanding of the interconnection between sustainability, health and happiness remain a powerful driver for rebuilding and for moving forward.
The rush on shelves we witnessed during lockdown might suggest a revenue surge for large-scale retail. But the picture must be viewed as a whole. "We certainly did not get rich," explains Marco Pedroni, president of Coop Italia, who expects to close the year with a slight improvement in turnover estimated at plus 1 per cent. "The sales figures from March (with peaks of up to plus 20 per cent) subsequently came back down to earth, as is only natural. In June and July, large-scale retail trends were negative, while August saw a stabilisation."
In addressing this topic, it is also right to acknowledge how, during the emergency, the entire agri-food supply chain found itself on the front line, behind healthcare workers, in an attempt to safeguard the common good. In this light, Coop reports having "invested an additional 100 million euros in safety and support for famili