A computer scientist turned communicator, Ramez Naam came to Milan for the Singularity University Summit 2017. His words on the potential of renewable energy and technological innovation were deeply reassuring.
After spending thirteen years at Microsoft, the leading company in the computing sector, and contributing to the development of cult programmes such as Outlook and Internet Explorer, Ramez Naam — born in Cairo, Egypt, but raised in the United States — has devoted his expertise as a computer scientist to communicating the potential of technological innovation.
For Singularity University (SU), Naam is a leading speaker specialising in energy and environmental systems. It is in this capacity that we interviewed him. Naam took part in the latest summit that SU held in Milan, on 27 and 28 September. His words were clear and unequivocal: "Clean energy, more than anything else, is the solution with the greatest impact on climate change."
In your book The Infinite Resource you posed the question "Can innovation save the planet?" What are the technological and scientific innovations that can already help us win the fight against climate change today? Clean energy, more than anything else, is the solution with the greatest impact on climate change, and it is an incredibly fast-moving innovation. The price of solar panels has fallen 250-fold over the past forty years, the price of wind energy has fallen 15-fold since the 1980s, battery costs have fallen 5-fold since 2010, and the cost of electric vehicles has also dropped significantly. This would allow us to keep using energy and live full lives (as we wish), while at the same time being sustainable and protecting the planet.
In your talk you said that Italy is a very suitable place for renewables… Italy is one of the sunniest countries in Europe. The more sun there is, the cheaper the energy produced will be. That is why Italy is a perfect place to develop this type of energy. We have seen a fall in solar prices in Italy, a surge in construction and then a slowdown. But it looks as though it will take off again in the next two years, because prices keep falling.
Why are there large companies, such as Eni, that maintain gas and coal are still an option? Fossil fuels are still dominant today. Essentially, people buy the cheapest energy that meets their needs. And until recently it was clear that gas and oil were the cheapest way to heat homes, provide electricity and power transport. But things have changed in recent years. Two years ago there was the first case in which solar energy became cheaper than coal and gas. And now this is happening in many countries. Two years ago, if you wanted to buy a good electric car, there was the Tesla Model S at 80,000 dollars. Now you can buy a Tesla Model 3 for 30,000 dollars. So things are changing fast, right now. In many parts of the world, the most affordable option is already solar or wind, or even electric vehicles.
If the cost of solar is already competitive — more so than fossil fuels — why has the choice not yet been made to invest only in this technology instead of wasting billions on fossil fuels? Those who invest in fossil fuels will lose an enormous amount of money — hundreds of billions of dollars. And sometimes it is the state, and therefore the taxpayers, who lose that money. If you build a new coal-fired power plant or a pipeline today, it will take 30 or 40 years to pay it off. You might think that today using natural gas is 10 per cent more affordable than solar. But that will not be the case in a couple of years. This mechanism is called a sunk cost, or stranded asset — something you build today that in 5 or 10 years will be worth almost nothing. And who will pay for it? The stakeholders! So investors should be furious at the criminal behaviour of those who run the companies that have led them into massive losses. Or they will demand that the public foot the bill, in which case it is the public who should be furious.
Ramez Naam, a Singularity University speaker, took part in the Milan summit on 27 and 28 September 2017.
What do you think of the Paris Agreement in relation to the energy sector? The Paris Agreement is just one step. Let me give an example: there is a car approaching a cliff. You have to turn the steering wheel again and again so that the wheels change direction and the car does not go over the edge. Is the first time you steer enough? No, but it had to be done. Similarly, the Paris Agreement is just one step, but if things go well and clean energy continues to be more affordable — which it will — then in 5 or 10 years we will find ourselves back at the table and we will draw up a new Paris Agreement that is stricter in its numbers and targets. And we will be able to do so because countries will see that clean energy is an option, and an affordable one at that.
In that sense, do you believe that American companies will manage to change the mind of the administration led by Donald Trump? I think the Trump administration will have a minimal impact on climate change, because we have reached a point where economics drives the uptake of clean energy and where policies still matter. In the United States, most policy is made at the state level. Indeed, two thirds of American states have clean energy mandates. And in the rest of the world — in Europe and also in Asia — the price of clean energy is falling and people are putting pressure on the policy front.
You said that Italy is one of the most expensive countries (28 cents per kilowatt-hour) — will it be possible to bring prices down thanks to renewables? Italy gave a big push to renewable energy in the early days, when it was still expensive, and so passed that cost on to consumers. But now, thanks to this reversal, the new generation of renewables are also the most affordable. So it should be possible to bring costs down. So yes, thanks to solar, wind and batteries, Italy should be able to lower the cost of energy while becoming sustainable.
Is there a technology on the verge of breaking through that could bring the energy transition to completion? There is no magic potion. The idea of a single technological breakthrough is a myth. The reality is that first you build the technology, then you use it. And the more it is used, the cheaper it will become. So there are technologies that can make it happen, but even with falling prices for solar, wind and batteries we are still at risk. It seems that we will exceed 2 degrees of average global temperature rise regardless. That is why we must focus on policies. And if we succeed, we will curb climate change and create low-cost clean energy for everyone.
Ramez Naam: renewables now cost very little and are ready to save us from climate change
Energy — di Tommaso Perrone
A computer scientist turned communicator, Ramez Naam came to Milan for the Singularity University Summit 2017. His words on the potential of renewable energy and technological innovation were deeply reassuring.