Despite the progressive fall in battery costs, electric cars will remain "significantly more expensive" to build for European carmakers, compared to internal combustion models (petrol and diesel), for at least another decade. This is the finding of a study published by the Financial Times, which highlights how, according to analysts, while the total production cost of a compact electric car will fall by more than a fifth by 2030, to around €16,000, the price will still remain 9 per cent higher than comparable petrol or diesel cars. Although the number and complexity of mechanical components is significantly lower in an electric car, the crux of the matter, as is well known, remains above all the cost of batteries and their technology, which is nonetheless set to evolve rapidly over the coming years. Of course, production costs and the retail price of an electric car should not be confused — the latter can also be affected by government incentive policies in favour of electric mobility, but that is another matter.

The circular economy in the automotive sector comes at a price

Data gathered by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman and contained in the research commissioned by the Financial Times reveals another figure: the production cost of internal combustion vehicles — whose retail price often rises due to buyers requesting numerous optional extras — will not fall significantly either, while on the manufacturers' side there is growing attention to the use of renewable materials for components, whose cost is sometimes higher (for the end consumer as well). The ones set to benefit, the American newspaper notes, are the carmakers themselves, who, through a stream of optional extras (whose value is often far lower than the price at which they are offered) see their profit margins increase.

Electric cars: by 2030 they will cost as much as petrol and diesel models

For some time, many studies have identified reaching a cost of 100 dollars per kilowatt-hour as the turning point; only when the price of battery packs falls below this threshold will electric vehicles be able to compete on price with petrol and diesel models. This would mean that an electric car with a 45 kWh battery (such as the base model of the Volkswagen ID.3) would see its battery pack cost reduced to $4,500, with no maintenance required and many years of useful life. Furthermore, eliminating cobalt from battery components would reduce costs even further. The problem is knowing when all of this will actually happen. Until now, the most widely cited date was around 2025. The Financial Times, however, pushes the deadline further back, announcing that we will have to wait at least 10 years before electric cars reach price parity with internal combustion models. 2030 is indeed the date indicated by the research commissioned by the American newspaper as the point by which, thanks above all to the expected fall in battery prices, electric mobility will finally be within reach of many. The main drivers of improvement will be economies of scale and new technological frontiers, such as solid-state batteries. Elon Musk himself, as reported by the BBC, has announced a technology that will revolutionise both the cost and above all the range of batteries, capable of travelling millions of kilometres. Declarations of this magnitude have transformed the race to the technological finish line into a global speculative phenomenon, with deadlines now constantly monitored by investment funds, energy sector analysts and betting sites specialising in predictive markets. All that remains is to wait.