• Food prices are recording a higher increase compared to the general consumer price index.
• The Antitrust Authority will investigate the role of large-scale organised retail within the supply chain and in the formation of prices.
• Alessandra Rivolta, an expert at Altroconsumo, explains the causes of price increases and how we can protect ourselves as consumers.

From 2021 to 2025, food prices rose by 24.9 per cent, 8 percentage points more than what was recorded over the same period by the general consumer price index. The Autorità garante della concorrenza e del mercato, known as the Antitrust Authority, has launched an investigation to shed light on the role played by large-scale organised retail (gdo) within the agri-food supply chain with regard to the distribution of added value among suppliers and agricultural producers and the formation of final prices.

While waiting for the Antitrust Authority to reach its conclusions – the investigation will conclude by 31 December 2026 – we spoke with Alessandra Rivolta, an expert at Altroconsumo, to understand why grocery prices continue to rise and how we as consumers can protect ourselves.

Why did the Antitrust Authority decide to launch an investigation into the role of large-scale retail?
The Antitrust Authority has launched a proceeding to verify what is happening: food prices have risen more than average inflation and, above all, despite the inflationary surge having somewhat subsided, the gap continues to persist.

What are the causes that have led and continue to lead to rising prices?
One could say that food products have been hit by a perfect storm. There have been many factors, some not yet fully spent, that have led to a generalised increase in food prices — a phenomenon that does not affect Italy alone, but all European countries. Between 2019 and today, food prices in the Baltic republics have risen by as much as 50 per cent, and in Germany by 30 per cent. We can divide the triggering factors into structural causes, which will not be resolved in the short term, and more contingent causes. Among the structural causes is the rise in global average income: developing countries are buying more, and this drives up prices. This is especially visible in certain products such as cocoa: the producing countries are few, production increases slowly, while demand is growing enormously because many countries, particularly in Asia, are consuming more and more chocolate.

There is also a problem of agricultural productivity in Europe: it is difficult to make European agriculture even more efficient and to increase production quickly. Furthermore, an impactful factor is the increase in extreme weather events around the world, which destroys and reduces agricultural yields. Among the more contingent causes, the inflationary surge arrived in Europe with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, major producers of agricultural goods and energy — a conflict that has not yet been resolved. Production costs for agriculture and agricultural product prices have risen, so consumers are paying more for them.

Is it possible that large-scale retail is taking some advantage of the situation?
It will certainly be up to the Antitrust Authority to establish this and bring clarity — we don't know yet. It is true, however, that in a context where prices have risen so much and so rapidly, there may be greater room to implement strategies that are not entirely justified. If large-scale retailers find that they can sell the same quantity of a product at a higher price, then when the situation eventually normalises, they may not be particularly incentivised to lower prices, because people might save money elsewhere, but they are still compelled to buy food products.

The Antitrust Authority will also investigate the growing significance of own-brand products — what can you tell us about this?
Distributor-brand products, the so-called "private labels", are on the rise: roughly 1 in 3 products on shelves is a private label. Private label products were originally conceived as "entry-price" options, but have since evolved to include "premium" products too, and as the range has diversified, these prices have also risen.

For consumers, private labels can be a positive development because they are often affordable and compete with branded products. And competition, as we know, is good for the market. For the suppliers who manufacture the product, it can be disadvantageous, because compared to large-scale retailers they may have less bargaining power and be in a weaker negotiating position. It is a phenomenon that needs to be monitored. It should be noted, however, that the European Union has worked extensively on this issue. Through the CAP, funds have been allocated to create organisations of small producers and farmers to handle negotiations. Where this has been implemented, the situation has improved somewhat.

Shrinkflation — the marketing strategy whereby a product's packaging is made smaller while the price remains the same — does it really exist? And if so, how widespread is it?
Yes, it is a practice that exists and that we have monitored, though it is difficult to do so. It is more easily applied to new products than to classic formats. For instance, it is not done with a classic 350 g packet of shortbread biscuits, but perhaps with a hypothetical new product with some different characteristic. This new product, similar to the old one, is offered in a smaller format at the same price. Shrinkflation is not all that widespread lately: in any case there is nothing unlawful about it, as long as the price is correctly stated.

What can we as consumers do to protect ourselves from rising food prices?
Promotions are always a useful tool, provided they are used wisely — without going overboard with purchases and without generating waste. Private labels also often have competitive prices, unless they are part of the premium range, and are generally of good quality.

Discount stores gained significant ground between 2022 and 2023 and continue to hold a relevant share of the market. Prices there can be lower, but care should be taken because it is not a given that a product sold at a discount store automatically costs less. In general, it is always advisable to check the price per kilogram and per litre, bearing in mind a sense of the average cost of a product.