Plastic production is set to grow dramatically over the coming decades. A lifeline for oil companies? The answer lies in a report by the International Energy Agency.
If anyone has been wondering why the world's major oil industry players are not rushing to adapt, in the face of repeated indications that fossil energy sources need to be abandoned in favour of renewable energy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has provided a clear answer. What could "save" the sector's giants is plastic.
In recent decades, the majority of oil extracted worldwide has been used to provide fuel for vehicles fitted with internal combustion engines. Rising average global temperatures have, however, persuaded some governments and numerous major cities to commit, on one hand, to banning the most polluting lorries and cars from circulation. On the other, to supporting clean mobility: the use of bicycles and public transport, alongside incentives for the purchase of electric or hybrid vehicles.
Faced with such a scenario, a consistent industrial policy should inevitably lead the oil sector's giants to restructure. But what is holding back change is petrochemicals. The IEA report, published on 5 October, forecasts that global plastic production could grow dramatically over the coming decades — by 30 per cent by 2030 and by 60 per cent by 2050. This would bring the global total to approximately one billion tonnes: the equivalent of current steel and cement production.
The document, entitled Future of petrochemicals, notes that growth will be concentrated primarily in developing countries, where consumption will increase sharply. Consider that today nations such as those in Africa, or indeed India, use twenty times less plastic than the wealthier nations.
"This is one of the blind spots in the energy debate," explained Fatih Birol, director general of the IEA, as reported by the daily Novethic. "Our economies are highly dependent on petrochemical production, but the sector does not receive sufficient attention." Yet, since 2000, global demand for plastic has already doubled. It is no coincidence that a giant such as Total has decided to build a massive specialised plant in Saudi Arabia, together with Saudi Aramco — an investment of five billion dollars.
The IPCC's SR15 report, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has explained that the world is heading towards a rise in average global temperature far more rapid than previously anticipated. It has stated that one of the unavoidable solutions for saving the planet from climate change is precisely the abandonment of fossil fuels.
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Plastic production could represent an enormous problem in this regard. Not to mention the dramatic impact on the oceans: a study by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, back in 2016, stated that the amount of plastic in the sea will, by 2050, exceed that of fish.
