The climate crisis will affect everyone, but not in the same way. By 2050, extreme heatwaves caused by the rise in average global temperature will be almost ubiquitous, especially in major cities around the world. But for those living in the world's poorer countries, protecting themselves will be far more difficult.

90 per cent of deaths will be concentrated in the least wealthy countries

This is explained by a study from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, in the United States, according to which the total number of heat-related deaths will be ten times higher in less wealthy nations compared to the more affluent ones on the planet. The analysis estimates that deaths linked to extreme temperatures will amount to 391,000 per year in the former, against "just" 39,000 in the latter. In simpler terms, approximately 90 per cent of the people who will not survive the suffocating heat will be concentrated in low- or lower-middle-income countries.

Power Shift Africa ✓ @PowerShftAfrica

𝕏

By 2050, the Global South will lose ten times more lives to extreme heat than the Global North.

That gap is not a coincidence. It is exactly what we mean when we talk about climate injustice

In Niger and Burkina Faso, heat-related deaths are projected to exceed current malaria

♥ 5💬 1 31 mar 2026 · Apri su X →

The report is based on data collected from as many as 25,000 regions around the world. Nor does it even assume the most alarming scenarios in terms of global warming: the researchers modelled an increase in average global temperature of 2.1 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period. Numerous analyses, as well as projections based on Nationally Determined Contributions (the greenhouse gas emission reduction pledges submitted by governments around the world, known by the acronym NDCs), point to a trajectory that will lead to exceeding 2.5 degrees.

"One of the cruellest ironies of climate change"

"This report highlights one of the cruellest ironies of climate change: it is projected to cause the deaths of millions of people in the countries that have contributed least to causing it", Michael Greenstone underlined, one of the report's authors. Historically, developing nations and the poorest countries have released infinitely smaller quantities of CO2, methane and other climate-altering gases into the atmosphere compared to the Global North.

As is well known, access to air conditioning systems, to "climate refuges", as well as to acceptable conditions in the workplace, is not the same everywhere in the world. Not to mention the quality of healthcare systems. And it is difficult to imagine that the state of affairs could be radically transformed within the next twenty years.

In Pakistan, heat deaths will surpass those from strokes

Furthermore, the study indicates that among the 25 worst-affected countries, many of the planet's poorest nations appear: this is the case for Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Pakistan, Mauritania, Mali. In particular, in countries such as Niger, researchers speak of 60 additional deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. This is also due to the likely emergence of certain diseases that will spread more easily as temperatures rise, starting with malaria.

Simon Kuestenmacher ✓ @simongerman600

𝕏

Climate adaptation is crucial to protect human lives. Forecasts suggest poor countries will be hit much harder and see massive increases in death rates due to extreme heat. Helping poor countries to adapt to hotter climates is crucial. You want a cause worth investing in? Here it

♥ 38💬 2 27 mar 2026 · Apri su X →

Likewise, in Pakistan, the mortality rate linked to heatwaves could surpass those from strokes and pulmonary diseases. Marked increases in mortality are also forecast in European countries such as Spain, Italy, Greece, Moldova and Serbia. Even though these are by no means the world's poorest nations.