Much of western Europe is already grappling with temperatures that in many cities are approaching or exceeding 35 degrees.
Summer has not yet officially begun, but much of western Europe is already grappling with temperatures that in many cities are approaching or exceeding 35 degrees. According to weather forecasts, the most intense phase of the heatwave could last for several days, accompanied by increasingly widespread tropical nights. This is not an isolated episode. In recent years, heatwaves have been becoming more frequent, intense and prolonged, transforming from exceptional events into structural features of Mediterranean summers.
The cause of the rising temperatures is the northward surge towards Europe of a vast mass of hot air originating from North Africa, often referred to as the "African anticyclone". This meteorological event promotes stable weather conditions, clear skies and strong compression of the air in the lowest layers of the atmosphere, thereby increasing perceived temperatures.
The effects are particularly pronounced in inland areas far from the sea, where thermometers can reach 38–40 degrees. Night-time temperatures also remain elevated, making physiological recovery all the more difficult for the body.
Heatwaves are nothing new in the climate history of the Mediterranean. What is changing is their frequency and duration. Several international studies show how global warming is increasing the likelihood that exceptionally hot air masses will reach southern Europe and remain trapped there for longer periods.
Over recent decades, the average temperatures of the Mediterranean basin have been rising at a rate faster than the global average. According to the MedEcc scientific network, the Mediterranean is warming approximately 20 per cent faster than the global average, making it one of the planet's primary climate hotspots.
When we talk about extreme heat, we tend to think primarily of physical discomfort. In reality, the consequences are far wider-reaching.
High temperatures increase energy demand for building cooling, worsen drought conditions and place pressure on water resources. Agriculture suffers from heat stress and water shortages, while natural ecosystems become more vulnerable to wildfires and biodiversity loss.
Public health is also exposed to growing risks. Heatwaves are among the most dangerous meteorological phenomena in terms of mortality, particularly for the elderly, children and people with chronic conditions.
Every summer seems to bring new records. But focusing exclusively on peak temperatures risks losing sight of the broader picture. The point is not so much that it gets very hot for a few days, but rather that these conditions are becoming increasingly frequent.
The heatwave currently affecting Italy is yet another signal of a transformation already under way. The Mediterranean is considered one of the most climate-vulnerable hotspots on the planet, and what we today call "exceptional" could come to represent the norm for summers to come. The real challenge is therefore not to predict the next heatwave, but to adapt cities, infrastructure and productive systems to a climate that is changing more rapidly than we were accustomed to imagining.