Children born in 2021, when they reach the age of 30, will have to contend with a planet inexorably transformed by the climate crisis. Between water shortages, mass migrations, growing malnutrition and the extinction of animal and plant species, global warming will have made life on Earth considerably more complicated than it is today. The warning, this time in dramatic tones, has come from a draft of the Ipcc's new report — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — which was revealed on Wednesday 23 June by the AFP news agency.

The final version of the Ipcc report will be published in February 2022

According to the document, even if the pace of greenhouse gas emission reductions were to be sustained, the impacts on animals, flora and human beings will nonetheless be devastating. "Life on Earth can recover from drastic climate change by evolving into new species and creating new ecosystems. But humanity cannot," the technical report explains on page 137.

Daniel Aldana Cohen @aldatweets

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Journalists got their hands on a draft of the next big IPCC climate science report and sure enough—the news is grim af.

New green tech is nowhere near enough. Only the prospect of mass mobilization producing gigantic policy change gives me hope. 😬

france24.com/en/live-news/2…

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In general, the tone used by scientists appears apocalyptic. There is open talk of cataclysms, and governments are warned, yet again, about the need to act immediately and to do so effectively. Although this is a draft, moreover, according to the international press it is hard to imagine that the conclusions could change radically. The final text will in any case be published in February 2022.

The 1.5-degree Celsius threshold is vital

Unfortunately, then, the document will not be available before the United Nations' twenty-sixth world climate conference (Cop 26), which will be held in Glasgow, Scotland, in November. At the very least, the circulation of the draft will give the participating delegates a firm point of reference. The Ipcc, as it did with the Special Report 1.5 published in 2018, has confirmed that even by exceeding "only" the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius of increase in the average global temperature between now and 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels, the consequences will be "progressively severe, will persist for centuries and in some cases will be irreversible". The 2015 Paris Agreement sets 2 degrees as the limit, while calling for temperatures to remain "as close as possible to 1.5".

The Ipcc's position represents a disturbing factor, especially when one considers that, according to forecasts from the World Meteorological Organisation, there is a 40 per cent chance of exceeding 1.5 degrees. "The worst is yet to come — the Ipcc added — and it will be our children and grandchildren who will pay the price, far more than we will." The report thus highlights the serious problems that will arise especially in the Arctic region, which is warming three times faster than the global average. Furthermore, scientists warn of consequences that will manifest in the agricultural sector and in livestock farming and fisheries: "Across all food production systems, sudden losses are multiplying."

Guardian news ✓ @guardiannews

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IPCC steps up warning on climate tipping points in leaked draft report theguardian.com/environment/20…

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Poverty, migration, disease: what will happen to the Earth according to the Ipcc

The risk is that by 2050 the number of hungry people in the world will grow by 80 million, even keeping temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius. And within the next 10 years alone, 130 million more people could be pushed into poverty. Hundreds of millions of people living in coastal areas could also be forced to migrate due to rising sea levels. 350 million more people will be threatened by drinking water scarcity at 1.5 degrees; a figure that will rise to 400 million if the temperature reaches 2 degrees. Extreme weather events, moreover, will become ever more violent and frequent. Heatwaves, droughts, hurricanes, wildfires, floods. And in terms of public health, diseases — above all those carried by insects — will pose an ever greater threat.

AFP News Agency ✓ @AFP

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VIDEO: 🌍 Coastal cities are on the "frontline" of the #climate crisis, with swelling oceans redrawing the map and putting hundreds of millions of people at risk. That's the warning in a draft report by the UN's climate science advisory panel, seen exclusively by AFP #IPCC

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Faced with such an apocalyptic scenario, there are no miracle solutions. Something can be done, however, to mitigate the effects of climate change. Not only by zeroing net CO2 emissions as soon as possible, but also by preserving biodiversity, defending and extending mangrove forests, and launching rescue plans for the most vulnerable populations. More than anything, the Ipcc's new report indicates that the planet is at a crossroads: either we choose to govern a revolution, or we will witness a catastrophe.