The natural gas leak that occurred in the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea has stopped. The hypothesis is that it was an act of sabotage.
Update of 1 October. The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has stopped leaking natural gas from the breaches that emerged beneath the Baltic Sea. This is reported by the Danish Energy Agency. The news is also confirmed by Nord Stream AG spokesperson Ulrich Lissek, according to whom there are two possible reasons for the end of the gas leak: "Either the pipeline has completely emptied, or the water pressure and the gas pressure inside the pipe have reached such an equilibrium that the gas still inside cannot escape."
Suspicions of sabotage are meanwhile growing: according to an analysis by a group of experts, cited by the Guardian, the four breaches in the two Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines may have been opened with TNT — as much as 500 kilograms — detonated at a depth of 80 metres, hence the explosions that were heard before the gas began to surface. The study suggests that the TNT may have been planted by the robots used for maintenance: Nord Stream 1 was at that time shut down precisely for repair works.
Calculations by the Danish Energy Agency show that the leaks from the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines have, in the worst-case scenario, released 778 million standard cubic metres of natural gas. The volume of gas that leaked is equivalent to greenhouse gas emissions of approximately 14.6 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). By comparison, Danish CO2e emissions amounted to approximately 45 million tonnes of CO2e in 2020. The climate impact of the leaks therefore corresponds to 32 per cent of Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020.
Update of 29 September. The gas leaks from the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea are four in number, not three — two in Swedish waters and two in Danish waters. The fourth breach was identified by the Swedish Coast Guard, and in all likelihood opened at the same time as the other three, not subsequently.
Greenpeace has meanwhile raised the environmental alarm: "the Nord Stream pipeline leaks, according to initial estimates, could have the same climate-destruction potential as 30 million tonnes of carbon dioxide. That is the same as the annual emissions of 20 million cars in the European Union." Stefano Grassi, chief of staff to the European Commissioner for Energy, had also spoken of a "potentially unprecedented climate and environmental disaster."
Update of 28 September. The triple gas leak that yesterday affected the two Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea is continuing, and it will not be possible to intervene for at least another week. Even now "there is a lot of gas leaking out, the explosion was very large, and so it will take at least a week or two before it is possible to investigate by going down to depth," explained Danish Defence Minister Morten Bodskov.
The European Union is meanwhile speaking plainly of sabotage, and through High Representative for Foreign Affairs Joseph Borrell says it is deeply concerned about the damage that has caused leaks in international waters of the Baltic Sea." Concerns relate above all to security and the environment, which are of the highest priority. According to Europe, "all available information indicates that such leaks are the result of a deliberate act. We will support any investigation aimed at obtaining full clarity on what happened and why, and will take further steps to increase our resilience in energy security. Any deliberate disruption of European energy infrastructure is absolutely unacceptable and will be met with a robust and united response."
The Danish Defence Minister himself was the most forthright in assigning responsibility for the sabotage to Russia, "which has a significant military presence in the Baltic Sea region and we expect it to continue to rattle its sabre." Moscow, however, continues to reject the accusations: according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov, who is calling for a joint investigation into what happened, the United States could be behind the incident: "it was predictable, but stupid and absurd" to accuse Russia, "but let us remember that Biden said in February that he wanted to get rid of Nord Stream. And today we are seeing a significant increase in the profits of American energy companies…"
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A triple natural gas, methane, leak has been affecting the two Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines since last night. The pipelines are owned by the energy company Gazprom and connect Russia with Europe, and Germany in particular. Two gas leaks have occurred near the Danish island of Bornholm, in the Baltic Sea, between Sweden and Denmark, to the point where the seawater can be seen bubbling in a vortex reaching one kilometre in diameter: the Swedish Ministry of Defence has published a video documenting the explosions. A third gas leak has occurred in Swedish waters.
The alarm was raised jointly by the Danish and Swedish authorities, who have opened a joint forum on the triple gas leak, while the operator of the two pipelines, Nord Stream AG, independent from Gazprom, speaks of "unprecedented damage" occurring on the same day and caused by a pressure drop, adding that it has no precise estimate of when operations can be restored.
At present, neither pipeline is operational: the Nord Stream 2 project was abandoned by Germany at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while Nord Stream 1 has officially been shut down since the beginning of September "for maintenance works," according to Gazprom, although the real reason may be attributable to a Russian reprisal against European sanctions over the war. Both pipelines, however, were still full of pressurised gas, and the coincidence and severity of the damage to the two pipelines point to an act of sabotage.
Nord Stream AG states only that "the causes of the damage are under investigation," while the German daily Tagesspiegel explains that "the pressure drop in the two pipelines in quick succession" is not considered a coincidence by the Berlin government. The Swedish police themselves have opened an investigation into sabotage. Navigation within a radius of five nautical miles and overflight by aircraft within a radius of one kilometre are currently prohibited. The Danish Energy Agency speaks of "truly enormous gas leaks" in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines: "We are concerned about what has happened." Concern also in Norway: Norwegian Navy captain Tor Ivar Strømmen tells Norwegian TV in no uncertain terms that "the Russians have deliberately destroyed these pipelines; they will probably try to blame someone else, preferably the Americans."
While waiting to understand the causes of the gas leak, according to Tim McPhie, spokesperson for the European Commission, "the potential impact of the methane leak must be monitored — a gas with significant effects on climate change and air pollution. We are in direct contact with member states on maritime navigation."
