In the night between Sunday 16 and Monday 17 October, Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi announced on national television the decision to launch a military offensive with the objective of retaking the city of Mosul, occupied by Isis since June 2014.

The UN fears a new wave of refugees

At the time, the Sunni-majority city centre had been seized by Islamic State with relative ease, in part due to the local population's distrust of Iraq's Shia-dominated security forces. After entering the city, hardline leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi had proclaimed the establishment of a caliphate over the territories conquered in Iraq and Syria.

At present, between three thousand and nine thousand fighters of the radical Islamic organisation are believed to be present in Mosul. The city, which before the war had a population of 2 million people, now has only one and a half million. A decline that could accelerate in the coming days: Lisa Grande, the United Nations humanitarian coordinator in Iraq, has explained that the new military operation could trigger a new wave of refugees: 200,000 in the first two weeks, a figure that could rise further should the conflict continue.

However, in the first two days of the battle, very few refugees have been seen, as confirmed by military forces on the ground. Isis is reportedly preventing the population from fleeing. The risk is that it may decide to use civilians as human shields.

Kurdish forces have retaken the outskirts of Mosul

Iraqi forces launched the offensive with around 30,000 troops from the army and police, backed by the international coalition (led by the United States). In the meantime, Kurdish fighter militias have managed to seize several eastern suburbs of Mosul, including the city of Qaraqosh, from which Isis drove out the Christian population in 2014.

On Monday, Pentagon spokesman Peter Cook stated that "the first day of fighting went according to plan." But the international coalition itself has indicated that the operation could last "two weeks, if not longer." This will also depend on Isis's response, which, should it find itself in difficulty, could opt for a terrorist strategy — primarily through suicide attacks — as has already occurred elsewhere.

Furthermore, after the first 48 hours of fighting, forecasts are beginning to look even more grim: some are already raising the possibility of many weeks of street fighting in Mosul, and some are already talking of months.