The Mediterranean basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the face of climate change. Due to the possible coastal flooding, the agricultural resources that could be affected, and the diseases that could emerge, carried by the ever-increasing number of mosquitoes. But also due to the risks associated with access to drinking water.

The average temperature in the Mediterranean basin has already risen by 1.4 degrees Celsius

The alarm is raised by an international study, published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change, which serves as a warning above all for the countries of the southern Mediterranean. According to the analysis — the first to broadly assess the consequences for those living in the sea enclosed between Europe and Africa — the average temperature has already risen by 1.4 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era. This means that climate change is progressing in the region at a faster rate than in the rest of the world. Globally, in fact, the rise in temperature has so far been a "mere" one degree. The disasters that struck Italy at the end of October have clearly shown what we risk facing.

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"Even with global warming limited to 2 degrees — the study reads — summer precipitation will very likely decrease considerably. The decline will be between 10 and 30 per cent, depending on the region. This will worsen water scarcity problems and cause a sharp fall in agricultural production, especially in the southernmost areas." Episodes of drought, moreover, will last longer. Whereas rainy episodes, by contrast, will become rarer but also more intense.

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The world average temperature has increased by “just” 1 degree Celsius on average since the preindustrial era. Around the Mediterranean, the increase is 1.4 degrees Celsius
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The researchers identified five major threats to the region, which are interconnected. In addition to the issues of drinking water supply and food security, particular mention is made of the risks linked to the conservation of ecosystems, to health, and to the safety of infrastructure (this last point is linked in particular to possible flooding).

Southern nations' dependence on foreign imports will grow

According to the study, the situation will become so problematic as to give rise to conflicts between farmers, landowners and industries: "The impacts of climate change on agriculture, combined with population growth and thus increased demand, will increase the dependence of southern nations on imports."

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In purely climatic terms, scientists indicate that the level of the Mediterranean has already risen by 60 millimetres. And the trend points to an inevitable acceleration, caused by melting ice: "The phenomenon will affect a very large proportion of the population living on the coasts, who will be struck by significant flooding."

To all of this must be added a significant acidification of the basin's waters. This represents an enormous problem, given that a large share of the CO2 emitted as a result of human activities (industry, transport, energy production) is absorbed by the sea itself. This phenomenon diminishes proportionally with the process of acidification, as the waters are already saturated and therefore unable to absorb more carbon dioxide.

The range of a number of viral diseases will expand

In terms of human health, finally, the report explains that there will be an increase in the range of certain diseases. In particular the West Nile virus, dengue and chikungunya. But cardiovascular and respiratory diseases could also increase, as indeed confirmed by a study conducted in the city of Barcelona, in Spain, covering the decade 2003–2013.