Scorching temperatures for 200 days a year, floods in traditionally arid areas: this is the future awaiting the Middle East, if humanity fails to curb climate change.
If there is one part of the planet where climate change can be felt first-hand, sometimes with dramatic consequences, it is undoubtedly the Middle East. Even this largely desert and semi-desert region, which is in itself characterised by an arid and inhospitable climate, has in recent years been severely tested time and again by a series of abnormal weather events. And no improvement is expected in the near future — quite the opposite. A detailed analysis published by the World Economic Forum takes stock of the most critical situations.
The Dead Sea (which is technically a salt lake, fed by the River Jordan) has shrunk by roughly one third over the past two decades as a result of the combined effect of scarce rainfall and rising temperatures, which have accelerated the evaporation of its water. Added to this is human intervention, as water from the basin is extracted for industrial purposes. Today the Dead Sea is less than 50 kilometres long, half what it was a hundred years ago. At this rate, its surface area will shrink by 1.2 metres every year.
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For around fifteen years, the governments of Israel and Jordan have been working on a colossal project to build an enormous desalination plant to make the waters of the Red Sea drinkable. The remaining salt water would then be pumped into the Dead Sea via a canal. The facility would be powered by a power plant, also to be built from scratch. There are, however, two major obstacles to overcome. The first is the cost, which looks set to be exorbitant. The second is environmental: there is a well-founded fear that the waters of the Red Sea could jeopardise the delicate ecosystem of the Dead Sea, altering its salinity and further accelerating the evaporation process.
Alexandria, on the Mediterranean coast of Egypt, faces the opposite problem. Sea levels continue to rise, and it is becoming increasingly common for water to flood seafront homes, causing serious structural damage. According to an estimate published by the World Bank in 2016, a half-metre rise in sea level would force the evacuation of 2 million people (out of a total population of five million), with economic losses of 35 billion dollars. The losses linked to the destruction of the historical and cultural heritage, on the other hand, would be incalculable.
In recent years the Arabian Peninsula has repeatedly been struck by violent cyclones — phenomena virtually unheard of until a few decades ago — which spare not even the traditionally driest and most arid areas of the Middle East. This is the case of Jeddah, a port city on the Red Sea, which in 2009, 2010 and 2011 was overwhelmed by violent storms, causing severe material damage and hundreds of casualties. According to research by King Abdulaziz University, the reason is also to be found in disorderly urban development and the lack of adequate prevention and early-warning systems.
The record for the highest temperature ever recorded still belongs to Death Valley, in California, with 56.7 degrees Celsius on 10 July 1913. In second place are the 55 degrees of Kebili, in Tunisia, recorded in July 1931. The official ranking of the World Meteorological Organization continues with two temperatures both recorded in the Middle East in more recent years: 53.9 degrees Celsius on 21 July 2016 in Mitribah, Kuwait, and 53.7 degrees in Turbat (Pakistan) on 28 May 2017. In Qatar, where the 2022 Football World Cup will be held, air conditioning units have even been installed outdoors to counter the unbearable heat.
The Max Planck Institute has developed 26 different temperature simulation models covering the period from 2046 to 2100. All of them have reached the same conclusion: the Middle East and North Africa region faces a future of extreme temperatures. In some areas, summer averages could increase by four degrees Celsius as early as the middle of the century, even if global temperatures were to remain within the +2 degrees limit relative to pre-industrial levels. If anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate, between 2081 and 2100 average temperatures will exceed those recorded at the end of the last century by more than six degrees. By the end of the century, therefore, the population will have to contend with two hundred days of abnormal heat every year.