The new population estimate for the Marsican brown bear puts the figure at 81 individuals, with a presence extending beyond its historic range in the Parco nazionale d'Abruzzo, Lazio e Molise.
The Marsican brown bear (Ursus arctos marsicanus) is one of the rarest species in the world and lives exclusively in the Apennine areas of central Italy. Although its history is ancient, and it has long featured in folklore and storytelling, scientific knowledge of it is more recent. The Marsican bear was described as a subspecies of the brown bear only in the early 1900s by the Molise-born naturalist Giuseppe Altobello, and research into its historical distribution shows that it was once widespread across the central-southern Apennines, from the Monti Sibillini to Campania and Puglia.
Today the Marsican brown bear is found only in the central Apennines, with just a few dozen individuals. It is listed as critically endangered on the Red List of the International Union for Conservation of Nature, and is a protected species under the European Union's Habitats Directive. In recent decades the Parco nazionale d'Abruzzo, Lazio e Molise, founded in 1922 precisely to protect it, has become the species' primary range and a unique hub for conservation and coexistence activities. Thanks to these efforts, we now know more and more about its characteristics and behaviours, what opportunities exist for coexistence, and — not least — that its population is expanding.
In recent years several bears have been observed in new areas of the central Apennines, including areas outside its historic range, demonstrating a slow but significant expansion. It has therefore become increasingly necessary to provide a new answer to the question "How many bears are there?", in order to better understand the plantigrade's presence compared with the data from the last survey, carried out in 2014, which recorded approximately 50 individuals. Monitoring the Marsican brown bear and understanding its distribution means directing conservation priorities for the coming years on the basis of concrete, scientific data.
Monitoring is indeed an essential research activity that underpins every conservation effort. As the park reminds us, "monitoring proceeds in parallel with conservation and management, without coinciding with them: it serves to make them adaptive, providing the necessary elements to guide decisions and interventions. At the same time, it helps to broaden knowledge of the ecology of the species and the territory it occupies." Through field observations, data collection and periodic analyses, monitoring makes it possible to identify changes over time in the species, its distribution and the characteristics of the habitat it inhabits. On these premises, the new estimate of the Marsican brown bear population in 2025 was produced.
The new monitoring study carried out in 2025 was one of a kind. It is the most extensive and comprehensive genetic monitoring exercise ever conducted on the Marsican brown bear and has made it possible, for the first time, to estimate the population across its entire distribution range. The survey covered approximately 6,000 square kilometres, encompassing both the species' historic range within the Parco nazionale d'Abruzzo, Lazio e Molise and its contiguous area, as well as the main peripheral zones into which the bear is expanding: the Maiella and upper Molise, the Sirente-Velino, the Simbruini-Ernici and the mountains of the Cicolano.
The result is the first estimate ever produced on this geographical scale: across the entire central Apennine range, 81 individuals are estimated — 43 females and 38 males — with an uncertainty interval of between 73 and 88 bears.
This is an exceptionally valuable body of data, representing an unprecedented knowledge base for understanding how many bears live today in the central Apennines and how this population is distributed across the territory.
Pnalm
When reading the data, there is an important detail to bear in mind: this figure does not mean that the bear population has gone from 51 in 2014 to 81 today, because the two estimates cover different areas. Comparing the same surface area studied eleven years ago — approximately 1,300 square kilometres within the Pnalm and its contiguous area — in 2014 an estimated 51 bears were recorded (with an interval of between 44 and 63), whereas in 2025 the estimate was 56 (with an interval of between 49 and 63). The historic heart of the distribution is therefore confirmed as the main range, with a population that is stable or slightly growing, now approaching carrying capacity.
Between the historic range and the peripheral areas there is also a wider central area, which includes the Valle Roveto and the Riserva Monte Genzana Alto Gizio, where in recent years the bear's presence has become progressively more stable and abundant. Including these territories as well, the estimate rises to 65 bears, with a density of 4.2 individuals per 100 square kilometres — very similar to that of the historic range.
This means that the work carried out over the past decade — protection, monitoring, surveillance, prevention, communication and awareness-raising, institutional collaboration — has helped to strengthen a unique and irreplaceable population. At the same time, however, these data must be read with the necessary caution: the Marsican brown bear remains a numerically limited population, still exposed to the risk of extinction and vulnerable to the many threats that stem above all from interaction with humans.
Luciano Sammarone, director of Pnalm
Another important piece of data is the density of the Marsican brown bear, which is not uniform across its entire range. Within the historical territory of the Pnalm and its contiguous area, it stands at approximately 4.4 bears per 100 square kilometres (a value considered close to saturation), while in peripheral areas it drops to around 0.4 bears per 100 square kilometres — ten times lower. Yet, according to the study, no marked differences emerge in habitat suitability between high- and low-density areas: peripheral zones could therefore sustainably support more bears. This means that what also matters is how well these areas are connected to the central core. For instance, at equal distances from the historical range, areas connected via biological corridors host higher densities than territories with no links or connected through fragmented habitats. At the same time, in areas where the risks of human-caused mortality — such as road collisions, poaching and poisoning — are greater, bear density is lower.
Protecting the bear therefore also means allowing it to expand. Countering the risks of anthropogenic mortality, protecting ecological corridors and fostering new areas of connectivity are the priorities for the species' expansion and the formation of new, stable and interconnected population nuclei.
The expansion of the bear thus brings with it the issue of coexistence in the human-inhabited territories it is returning to frequent, given that human activities continue to represent one of the main risks for the species. Indeed, causes of death of human origin account for 81 per cent of the 135 confirmed mortality cases recorded between 1970 and 2024.
It is in this context that in recent years the Apennines have become a point of reference for projects and activities promoting active coexistence, through prevention and the involvement of local communities. One example is the establishment of Bear-smart communities, which represent one of the most concrete pathways for turning coexistence into everyday practice — securing anything that might attract bears, preventing damage and directly engaging those who live and work in these territories. The first Bear-smart community was established in 2015 in Pettorano sul Gizio, and that experience has since been extended to other areas, reaching 16 communities within the framework of the LIFE Bear-Smart Corridors project.
Coexistence also depends on collective effort, and the further the bear extends its range, the more its conservation necessarily becomes a shared endeavour, bringing together diverse expertise, territories and actors — both institutional and private. The new population estimate is itself an example of this: its realisation involved, alongside Mase and Ispra, dozens of bodies and organisations, including national parks, regional parks and nature reserves, regional authorities, Marsican bear monitoring networks, the Carabinieri Forestali and environmental associations. A shared effort made necessary precisely because the presence of the bear does not stop at the boundaries of individual protected areas.
The conservation of the Marsican brown bear cannot be entrusted to the Parco Nazionale d'Abruzzo, Lazio e Molise alone and, more broadly, to protected areas alone. The bear crosses administrative boundaries, uses both protected areas and surrounding territories, and moves along ecological corridors that span municipalities, provinces, regions, national parks, regional protected areas and ordinary land.
This collective spirit and sharing of efforts and knowledge will be at the heart of the International Bear Conference of the International Association for Bear Research and Management (Iba), which will be held in Pescasseroli from 20 to 25 September. The choice of the Apennines was guided precisely by the work being done to protect the Marsican bear — work that involves administrations, citizens, stakeholders and businesses in reducing conflicts.
The Conference, held every two years, is the leading international event dedicated to bear research, conservation and management, bringing together researchers, protected area managers, institutions and experts from around the world to discuss conservation strategies and coexistence between humans and large carnivores.
This year's conference is organised by the Parco nazionale d'Abruzzo, Lazio e Molise together with Rewilding Europe, Rewilding Apennines and Salviamo l'Orso, with the support of the Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security. For six days, Pescasseroli will host scientific sessions, technical meetings and discussion forums dedicated to bear research and management.
LifeGate will be a media partner of the Iba conference and will cover the event from Pescasseroli with articles, interviews and in-depth features on the key themes emerging from the proceedings and on coexistence and conservation of the Marsican brown bear.
