Lagos, the metropolis being swallowed by climate change
Environment — di Andrea Barolini
Lagos, Nigeria's economic capital, could be completely submerged by 2050. The result of human activity and rising sea levels

Lagos, Nigeria's economic capital, could be completely submerged by 2050. The result of human activity and rising sea levels
Between one and four metres per year. The rate of erosion along the coasts of western Africa – according to a World Bank analysis – is simply staggering. The Atlantic Ocean is advancing, driven by the melting of polar ice and by currents. Destroying everything in its path. Including the megalopolis of Lagos, in Nigeria, with its 21 million inhabitants.
The African state's economic capital is one of the largest cities in the world. Since the 1970s, when it was home to just 1.4 million people, it has expanded at a dizzying pace. And it is precisely this dynamic that represents one of the contributing causes of the flooding that is beginning to engulf it.
Climate change is not, in fact, the only cause of the problem in Lagos. To construct the buildings that house the urban population – the majority of which sit at sea level – sand has been extracted from the sea for years and years. Tonnes and tonnes dredged from every direction. So much so that – according to Nigerian government data reported by the AFP agency – the seabed off the city contains craters as deep as eight metres. Just 25 metres from the shore. For this reason, the Nigerian Conservation Foundation believes it is no longer capable of protecting the metropolis: the city could therefore be completely submerged as early as 2050.
Despite this, projects incompatible with the conservation of the territory continue to be developed. One such case is Eko Atlantic City https://www.ekoatlantic.com: an artificial island off the coast of Lagos which, in the intentions of its promoters, is meant to represent "the Dubai of Africa". On it are set to rise skyscrapers, luxury apartments and Nigeria's financial centre. Such a project is expected to involve dredging more than 100 million tonnes of sand. "There are many projects like these across Africa – explains Maria Chiara Pastore, lecturer in the Department of Architecture and Urban Studies at the Politecnico di Milano – because there is an effort to build a new type of offering for the ruling class. With environmental costs that are, however, enormous."
Alongside the luxury island, there is another mammoth project in Lagos. A "great wall" financed by private investors: an immense barrier 8.5 kilometres long, made up of 100,000 concrete blocks. Which, its promoters assure, "will withstand even storms that occur once every thousand years."
It is also meant to protect Victoria Island, the current financial heart of the country and an affluent district of the African city. "But the reality – Pastore continues – is that these titanic projects in Africa often run up against the problem of timescales. Between the design, the permits and the construction, many years often pass. And the risk is of ending up with infrastructure that is already obsolete. Or not entirely adequate to the situation, given that especially in these contexts growth is often 'informal', uncontrolled. Not to mention that with climate change, standards will inevitably be revised."
The official website of Eko Atlantic City states that "since 2005 the coastline in the area has been under threat. The coastal road has disappeared and flooding has multiplied, while very many homes have been abandoned." The problem: the developers behind the project are the same ones building Eko Atlantic City (which will also be protected by the "wall").
"Many major African metropolises – Pastore notes – are situated on the sea. This is a legacy of colonialism, which needed ports to ship out natural resources. Around them, deforestation has in many cases been immense, alongside the urban concreting-over that renders the soil incapable of absorbing water. All of this only compounds the problems associated with climate change, extreme weather events and rising sea levels: the risk is of witnessing, in the coming decades, flooding coming from the coasts and from inland."

For this reason, according to the Politecnico di Milano lecturer, "on one hand it is necessary to begin reforestation efforts. On the other, to rethink urbanisation through planning." That said, however, "for parts of the metropolises built along the coasts, rising sea levels will leave only one solution: evacuation. The case of Beira, in Mozambique, is emblematic in this regard."