In Italy, 4,827 electric cars were sold in 2017, and 4,129 were registered in the first half of 2018, an 89 per cent increase. This growth has also driven the development of charging infrastructure: at the end of 2017, there were 2,750 public charging points, of which 16 per cent were high power, and 1,300 charging stations. These are the figures contained in the eMobility Report 2018 by the Energy & Strategy Group of the Politecnico di Milano.

Estimates for the future

The report outlines three scenarios for the development of electric cars by 2030: baseline, moderate, and accelerated development.

The baseline scenario projects no more than 1.8 million electric vehicles on the road by 2030, with the market share of new registrations peaking at 20 per cent of the total in that year. Hybrid vehicles maintain a higher market share of new registrations until 2025, before falling to 30% by 2030.

The moderate scenario estimates 20 per cent of new registrations will be electric as early as 2025, rising to nearly 50 per cent by 2030, by which point vehicles in circulation will approach 5 million, equivalent to 13 per cent of the total vehicle fleet.

Finally, an accelerated development scenario sees 35 per cent of new registrations by 2025 and nearly 2 million vehicles on the road. By 2030, electric vehicle registrations will exceed 60 per cent, driven by fully electric vehicles, reaching 7.5 million (20 per cent of the total fleet).

"In the future, a reduction in the upfront purchase cost of electric vehicles is expected as a result of economies of scale (especially with regard to batteries) and commercial policies, which means it is estimated that cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles could be reached by 2024," commented Vittorio Chiesa, Director of the Energy & Strategy Group.

In all three cases, the real impact of electric vehicles will begin to be felt around 2025, with sustained growth recorded between 2025 and 2030.

Charging infrastructure

The analysis of charging infrastructure contained in the report has produced different estimates for public and private charging station installations from now until 2030.

Looking at public charging stations, by 2025 the number of charging points will range from 21,000 in the baseline scenario to 38,000 in the accelerated development scenario. Looking at the 2030 figure, the average number of charging points will range from a minimum of 28,000 to a maximum of 48,000 in the highest-growth scenario.

To the public charging stations must be added private ones, primarily domestic. In this case, taking into account the characteristics of the Italian context (above all the availability of private parking in large cities) and also considering the growth of electric charging at private business car parks, it is possible to envisage a number of private charging stations by 2030 ranging from between 1.4 million and 1.6 million in the baseline scenario, up to 6.8 million in the accelerated development scenario.

Investment in electric cars

The market volume of electric cars is essentially linked to two factors: mobility in the strict sense (vehicles and charging infrastructure) and management (the cost of charging and vehicle maintenance).

"The major differences highlighted, particularly in terms of electric vehicle registrations across the three scenarios, lead to very different investment volumes over the timeframe considered. By 2025, figures range from €11.5 billion in the baseline scenario to €61 billion in the accelerated scenario; a difference that grows even larger by 2030, where the first scenario reaches €56.6 billion compared with over €230 billion in the accelerated scenario," explained Chiesa.

Management costs will also differ greatly across the three scenarios: in the baseline scenario they have been calculated at €675 million per year, in the moderate development scenario at €1.8 billion per year, and in the accelerated development scenario at €2.8 billion per year. The calculations have deliberately excluded induced effects (such as, for example, the increase in production capacity for the energy required or for infrastructure).