The IPCC has published the second of three reports on the causes, effects, and solutions of climate change around the world. The main problem could be food scarcity.
Climate change is under way, nature is holding on, but the worst is yet to come. This is the picture drawn by the report of the second working group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published on Monday 31 March at the end of a meeting between scientists and delegates held in Japan. The purpose of this document is to clearly identify the impacts of climate change on nature and on people.
This is the second of three reports. The first, published on 27 September 2013, established the scientific basis for global warming, confirming that it is an unequivocal and scientifically proven phenomenon. The third, which is expected to provide possible mitigation solutions and CO2 emissions reduction targets, is due in April.
The word "risk" appears 230 times across 2,600 pages compiled by 300 scientists. In the previous edition (2007) it appeared "only" 40 times, according to a count carried out by the International Red Cross. Figures that also explain the statement made by Rajendra Pachauri, chair of the IPCC: "Nobody on this planet is going to be untouched by the impacts of climate change."
Glaciers are melting, as is the permafrost. Coral reefs in the oceans are dying. Heatwaves and floods are becoming increasingly frequent. But the most important new element of the report concerns the link between climate change and food scarcity — and the possible outbreak of conflicts driven by hunger.
In particular, the report highlights how a decline in yields from wheat and maize fields is already under way. But the future could be even worse, as the world's population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050, pushing up demand for food against a backdrop of falling availability.
"Climate change is acting as a brake. We need yield increases to meet food demand, but instead yields are falling because of global warming," said Michael Oppenheimer, professor at Princeton University and co-author of the report.
The problems are not limited to agriculture. Fisheries are also under threat, and in some tropical marine areas the fish catch — on which the diet of many island states depends — is expected to fall by between 40 and 60 per cent.
Finally, the report confirms for the first time the forecasts — already made by other authoritative sources — of a possible increase in uprisings and armed conflicts over land and natural resources, particularly in Asia and Africa, driven by rising prices of basic foodstuffs. As happened following the price peaks of 2008 and 2011.
The report's conclusions must now be taken up by governments to ensure that the scheduled climate conferences deliver concrete responses on how to reduce risks and limit damage. The next Conference of the Parties (COP 20) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be held in Lima, Peru, from 1 to 12 December. But the crucial moment in the climate negotiations is COP 21 in Paris in 2015. This is where the new international agreement is expected to be signed, including commitments from all parties, from the United States to China.