The conflict in the Gulf threatens one of the most important energy infrastructures in the world, with effects on markets, trade and global energy security. What is the history, who are the actors and what are the possible consequences.

When discussing the ongoing war in Iran, the narrative often begins with recent days, marked by attacks, retaliation and military escalation in the region. To truly understand why this conflict is spreading, and why Iran is striking targets in Gulf countries, we need to take a step back — not just a few years, but more than seventy years.

In 1951, Iran was one of the world's leading oil producers. Yet that oil had never truly been under Iranian state control. Much of the energy industry was dominated by the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, the British firm that managed extraction and exports and retained the vast majority of the profits — and which in 1954 was renamed British Petroleum. That year, Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadeq made a decision that would change the country's history: the nationalisation of the oil industry. For Mossadeq, this was not merely an economic matter — it was a question of sovereignty. The decision triggered an immediate international crisis. The United Kingdom responded with an embargo on Iranian oil and launched a diplomatic campaign to isolate Mossadeq's government. The United States, initially more cautious, gradually began to view Iran as a sensitive flashpoint in the context of the Cold War.

In 1953, the crisis reached its most dramatic point. Through a covert operation organised by the CIA and British intelligence services — known to history as Operation Ajax — Mossadeq's government was overthrown. The Prime Minister was arrested and power returned to the hands of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. For Washington and London, the operation was a strategic success: a government perceived as unstable had been replaced by a reliable ally in the region. For many Iranians, the 1953 coup became a symbol of a long history of Western interference in the country's politics.

This is a political memory that continues to shape how the Islamic Republic interprets its relationship with the West. And it is precisely that political memory which is one of the elements that helps explain what is happening today — because when the Shah's regime collapsed in 1979 and the Islamic Republic was founded under Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the new Iranian political system was built in part in opposition to Western influence in the region. The 1979 revolution was not merely a change of government; it was a paradigm shift.

Iran went from being one of the United States' principal allies in Western Asia to becoming one of Washington's main strategic adversaries in the region. From that moment on, the Persian Gulf became one of the central arenas of this rivalry. To understand why, one must look at the geopolitical structure of the Gulf.

On one side stands Iran: a large country with nearly ninety million inhabitants, a long tradition of statehood, and a political system that after the revolution presented itself as an alternative model — both to the region's monarchies and to Western influence.

On the other side are the Gulf monarchies: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain — countries far smaller in demographic and geographic terms, but which over recent decades have accumulated enormous economic resources through oil and gas. The Gulf monarchies have built their security on a close alliance with the United States and the West. They host American military bases, defence systems and strategic infrastructure that form part of the Western security architecture in the region.

At the same time, over the past twenty years, these countries have invested enormously in economic development. They have focused on building ports, airports, logistics hubs and financial centres. Cities such as Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi have become vital nodes for global trade, air traffic and the energy flows connecting Western Asia, Asia and Europe.

This means that the Persian Gulf today is not merely a geopolitical region — it is also one of the most important economic infrastructures on the planet. And that is precisely what makes every crisis in the region potentially global.

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The conflict we are witnessing today involves several actors with very different interests. Iran is the Gulf's principal non-Arab regional power, and over recent decades it has built a network of alliances and influence stretching across several countries in Western Asia — from Iraq to Syria, from Lebanon to Yemen — an alliance known as the "Axis of Resistance."

Israel considers Iran the main strategic threat in the region, above all because of the Iranian nuclear programme and the support Tehran provides to armed groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. A strong Iran, at a historical moment when Tel Aviv has normalised relations with several Gulf countries, represents the sole remaining obstacle to Israel's complete hegemony in the region.

The United States has maintained a significant military presence in the Gulf for decades, precisely to guarantee the security of energy routes and to support its allies in the region.

And then there are the aforementioned Gulf monarchies — countries that in recent years have sought to maintain a delicate balance: on the one hand, cooperation with the United States and the West; on the other, the attempt to avoid a direct confrontation with Iran that could destabilise the entire region. When this balance breaks down, the risk is that the crisis escalates very rapidly, as has been happening in recent weeks.

One of the most discussed aspects of the current crisis is that Iran has struck targets in Gulf countries. At first glance, this might seem a counterintuitive choice, given that these countries are not formally part of the war. Strategically, however, the logic is different.

The Gulf monarchies form part of the security architecture the United States has built in the region. Some host American military bases; others cooperate closely with Washington on military and logistical matters. Striking infrastructure in these countries therefore means broadening the regional cost of the conflict. And here we find a second element, which concerns the global economy.

Much of the energy and logistical infrastructure upon which world trade depends is located in the Persian Gulf: oil terminals, commercial ports, maritime routes and aviation hubs. When this infrastructure is struck — or even merely threatened — the impact of the war does not remain confined to the military dimension; it extends to the global economy. Iran is responding to attacks on its territory with a war against the global economy.

There is one final element, often underestimated, which also concerns the economy — though in this case, the American economy. The Gulf states are a cornerstone of the United States economy. They sell oil in dollars and invest those dollars back into the American economy through stock market investments. The entire US economy now rests on investments in artificial intelligence and data centres, and all of that funding comes from the Gulf countries. If these monarchies can no longer sell oil, they can no longer finance the artificial intelligence bubble in the United States — a bubble that will eventually burst and bring down the entire American financial system.

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The most sensitive point of this entire infrastructure is the Strait of Hormuz. This is a relatively narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. This small corridor is the only route through which oil produced in most Gulf countries can reach global markets by sea.

Some 20 million barrels of oil pass through this strait every day, coming primarily from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran. In total, it is estimated that approximately one fifth of the world's oil transits through this maritime corridor. This makes the Strait of Hormuz one of the so-called choke points of the global economy — relatively small geographical points through which an enormous share of world trade passes.

When focusing on Iran, there is an additional element. Much of Iranian oil does not depart directly from the mainland coast, but from a small island in the Persian Gulf: Kharg Island. Kharg lies approximately twenty-five kilometres off the Iranian coast and is the country's main export platform. It is here that the pipelines connecting Iran's major oil fields to the sea converge. From this terminal, tankers load crude oil that then crosses the Persian Gulf and passes through the Strait of Hormuz. In practice, Kharg is the point at which Iran's entire energy supply chain connects to the global market. According to various estimates, between 85% and 90% of Iranian oil exports pass through this island. The terminal has the capacity to simultaneously load several supertankers and to handle millions of barrels of crude oil per day. This is why many analysts describe Kharg as a kind of "energy lung" of the Iranian economy.

If the Strait of Hormuz is the bottleneck through which Gulf oil flows, Kharg is the point from which most Iranian oil departs. And it is also one of the reasons why the island is considered a strategic target in the event of military escalation. During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, the island's infrastructure was repeatedly bombed precisely because striking it meant striking directly at the country's oil revenues. And even today, its role remains central.

Much of the crude oil exported by Iran is purchased by China, often through routes and intermediaries that allow the circumvention of international sanctions. This means that when we speak of the risk of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, we are not speaking merely of a maritime route. We are speaking of an entire energy infrastructure that begins at Iranian oil fields, passes through terminals such as Kharg, and then traverses one of the most important maritime corridors on the planet. When this infrastructure is threatened — even only potentially — the effect is immediately transmitted to global energy markets. And that is why every military escalation in this area is watched with the utmost attention by markets and governments around the world.