The Persian Gulf could become a ghost place by the end of the century
Environment — di Lorenzo Brenna
By the end of the century, temperatures in the Persian Gulf area could become unbearable for human beings.
The Persian Gulf could become a ghost place by the end of the century
By the end of the century, temperatures in the Persian Gulf area could become unbearable for human beings.
Dubai, the glittering emirate that rose between the desert and the coast of the Persian Gulf, could become a ghost region by the end of the century. Due to climate change, temperatures in the Persian Gulf area could exceed 70 degrees Celsius in 2100, becoming unbearable for human beings.
The alarming prediction emerged from a new study conducted by Jeremy Pal of Loyola Marymount University and Elfatih Eltahir of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and published in the journal Nature Climate Change.
The researchers, using sophisticated climate simulations of the affected area, were able to obtain temperature forecasts towards the end of this century, between 2071 and 2100. They then analysed climate variations in relation to greenhouse gas concentrations using two projections developed by the Ipcc (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), the first of which assumes that the rise in temperatures will continue at current levels, while the second considers a reduction in polluting emissions.
According to the first scenario, the climate will warm, occasionally surpassing the human survival threshold in the region's major cities; if, however, CO2 concentrations were mitigated, as envisaged by the second projection, critical temperature increases would be avoided.
Concern for public health is inevitable; the elderly and the sick would be the first to be affected, but rising temperatures would also endanger healthy individuals after several hours of exposure.
"Such severe heatwaves should occur only once every ten years, some decades apart from one another," specified one of the study's authors, Elfatih Eltahir, "but when they do occur, they will be lethal."
This phenomenon could also undermine the economy of the region, affecting, for example, the oil sector, the main economic resource of the Arab emirates.
Fossil fuels themselves — and, by a cruel irony of fate, the emissions they generate — could condemn many cities on the Persian Gulf, unless effective global strategies are adopted to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.