Glaciers are approaching an "extinction peak". This is the finding of a new study published on Monday, 15 December by the scientific journal Nature Climate Change, according to which, depending on different scenarios of increase in average global temperature, we will lose in the near future somewhere between 2,000 and 4,000 glaciers every year. This out of a total of approximately 200,000 glacial bodies currently present across the world.

The peak of glacier disappearance from 2041 onwards

The analysis indicates that the rate will be most pronounced in the period running between 2041 and 2055. Hence the concept of a "peak" introduced by the authors of the research, through which a new alarm bell is sounded for what are now considered symbols of the climate crisis.

Damien Roulette @daroulette

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« Selon cette recherche, publiée aujourd'hui dans Nature Climate Change, le nombre de glaciers disparaissant atteindra un pic entre 2041 et 2055. Au cours de cette décennie, jusqu'à 4 000 #glaciers pourraient être perdus chaque année. » #climat
nature.com/articles/s4155…

💬 1 15 dic 2025 · Apri su X →

The study of these "frontiers" of global warming is often carried out in terms of reduction in volume. This time, however, the focus has been on the number of glaciers existing on the Earth's surface. "Knowing when and where each of those glaciers will disappear is particularly important", explained Lander Van Tricht, a glaciologist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, in Switzerland, and lead author of the paper.

Four different global warming scenarios modelled

Together with the other researchers who conducted the analysis, the scientist modelled the evolution of all the world's glaciers, projecting their development according to four different scenarios in terms of climate warming. These correspond to an increase of 1.5 degrees, 2 degrees, 2.7 degrees or 4 degrees Celsius in average global temperature, compared to pre-industrial levels.

As one might expect, the difference between the various trajectories considered is enormous. But even if the most optimistic scenario were to materialise — foreseeing "only" 1.5 degrees of climate warming — we would still lose around two thousand glaciers per year during the peak period. That figure would double to four thousand glaciers per year in the event of a +4 degree Celsius increase.

These are figures significantly higher than current levels: today, between 750 and 800 glaciers disappear every year. Here, "disappearance" refers to a reduction in mass to less than 0.01 square kilometres, or a loss of 99 per cent of total volume.

The worst situations in the Alps, Caucasus, tropical Andes and northern Asia

It should be noted that the peak also varies considerably depending on geographic region: the glaciers most severely affected by climate change are the smaller ones, such as those in the Caucasus, the tropical Andes, or northern Asia. But those found in the Alps will also be among the first to disappear. Legambiente, between 17 August and 2 September, launched the sixth edition of the Carovana dei ghiacciai, travelling along the Alpine arc with five stages in Switzerland, Lombardy, Alto Adige, Germany and Piedmont.

New Scientist ✓ @newscientist

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Under current climate policies, 79 per cent of the world's glaciers will disappear by 2100, endangering the water supply for 2 billion people and raising sea levels dramatically newscientist.com/article/250871…

♥ 51💬 5 15 dic 2025 · Apri su X →

"Due to global warming – explains the environmental association – Alpine glaciers are visibly shrinking. By 2050, all glacial bodies below 3,500 metres in altitude will have disappeared. This is a worrying phenomenon occurring throughout the world. The rapid retreat of glacial fronts not only entails the loss of fascinating landscapes and biodiversity, but also equates to the disappearance of important freshwater reserves and essential ecosystem services. Furthermore, as permafrost degrades, it causes slope instability with serious risks for high-altitude infrastructure".

Conversely, the glaciers that will survive longest are those found in Greenland, the Svalbard Islands, Russia and the northern part of Canada.

We can still save 50 per cent of the world's glaciers

The study published in Nature Climate Change, however, does not merely certify an announced disaster. It is also a call to action, as we still have time to avoid the worst. If we keep global warming to +1.5 degrees, we can save approximately half of the existing glaciers. Whereas under the +2.7 and +4 degree scenarios, that proportion would drop to 20 and 10 per cent respectively.