There is good reason to celebrate: the world's fourth-largest economy has drawn up a detailed plan to phase out coal entirely between 2035 and 2038. The announcement comes from the German energy transition commission (Energiewende), which on the afternoon of Saturday 26 January published the official document of around 130 pages, setting out the various measures to gradually phase out one of the world's most polluting fossil fuels. Coal now has an expiry date in the country that consumes more of it than any other in Europe. And given the decision, the protection of Hambach Forest — which became the symbol of anti-coal protests in recent months — also appears "desirable". If adopted by the government led by Angela Merkel, the proposal would make Germany the largest economy in the world with concrete plans to end the use of coal for electricity generation.

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How Germany will phase out coal

The German strategy envisages that by 2022 12.5 GW of coal capacity will be closed — roughly one third of output — including 3 GW of lignite, while a further 6 GW of lignite and 7 GW of hard coal will be closed by 2030 (with 17 GW of coal remaining). Germany should thus end coal at the latest in 2038, although in 2032 there will be a review to assess the possibility of bringing this forward to 2035.

"The implementation of the agreement will place Germany once again among the international champions of climate protection," said Ronald Pofalla, one of the four leaders of the commission and former head of Angela Merkel's chancellery. "Germany can show that it can remain a highly industrialised nation while protecting the climate."

That, indeed, is precisely the point: to show the rest of the world that decarbonising the economy is not a pipe dream, but a viable path. Investment and concrete measures are of course needed to compensate coal power plant operators, support mining regions, and protect consumers from rising electricity prices. The estimate? 40 billion euros over 20 years. Although the commission's proposal is not legally binding, the task force is backed by a large parliamentary majority and the government is expected to follow its recommendations, given that the commission includes representatives from industry, plant operators, affected mining regions, workers, scientists and civil society.

According to NGOs, the policies are inadequate

There are, nonetheless, those who criticise the German roadmap: "The decision by Germany's ad hoc commission to complete the coal phase-out only in 2038 certainly does not satisfy those who understand the dangers of the climate, know that the fossil fuel with the highest CO2 emissions must be phased out as quickly as possible, and know that Europe, and its largest economy, are capable of doing so sooner than others," said Mariagrazia Midulla, head of climate and energy at WWF Italy.

Luca Bergamaschi, associate researcher at the Institute for International Affairs, also highlights the inadequacy of the agreement: "Germany's decision to close its last coal power plant by 2038 at the latest is a necessary but insufficient first step. To comply with the Paris Agreement, Europe must phase out coal by 2030. The outcome nonetheless shows that the energy transformation is proceeding on an unprecedented scale, with 40 billion earmarked for the social transition over the next 20 years. Even if belatedly, Europe's largest economy is now joining those countries that have already announced a coal phase-out."

Mauro Albrizio, director of Legambiente's European office, shares this view: "This is an inadequate response to the climate emergency. Germany, in line with the critical threshold of 1.5°C, must abandon coal by 2030 without replacing it with gas, while accelerating on energy efficiency and renewables to achieve net zero emissions by 2040." Others, however, see the glass as half full, among them Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: "The entire world is watching as Germany — an industry- and engineering-based nation, the fourth-largest economy on the planet — takes the historic decision to gradually phase out coal. This could accelerate the energy transition in a way never seen before."