"An accident like the one at Fukushima could happen in Europe too. I cannot say what the probability is, but we must start from the principle that it is possible." These words come not from a Greenpeace activist but from the president of the French Nuclear Safety Authority, Pierre-Franck Chevet, who in an interview given to the newspaper Libération explains in no uncertain terms that catastrophic scenarios cannot be ruled out.

Read also: Fukushima, piantando i semi della rinascita

The French newspaper asked Chevet why he had spoken in recent months of a "particularly worrying context in terms of nuclear safety." The official replied that his statements stem from three observations: "First of all, keeping forty-year-old power plants in service is technically very complicated. Edf (France's main electricity company, ed.) estimates the cost of the work needed to keep them running at 55 billion euros. That gives a sense of the scale of the undertaking."

The financial situation of Edf and Areva is a cause for concern

Secondly, Chevet continued, "safety standards have risen, while the nuclear industrial fleet was built in the 1980s. This is no small problem." Finally, what gives cause for concern is "the financial situation of the players in the sector. Edf, Areva, and the Cea itself (the Atomic Energy Commission, ed.) are in serious economic and budgetary difficulty. And when a company lacks the means, it is clear that a safety risk exists. I don't mean on the most critical investments, but on the intermediate ones."

"In any case," he added, "we have issued requirements, with deadlines. And we will ensure they are met. We carry out a great many inspections and the law allows us to impose fines if necessary."

Power plants up to forty years old

On the basis of these statements, the newspaper 20 Minutes has drawn up a risk map of French territory, where fifty-eight nuclear reactors are in operation across nineteen sites. For its part, Edf has assured that "the safety level of the power plants is systematically reassessed against international standards." And the reactors have been subjected to "stress tests" to verify their resilience under extreme conditions (such as earthquakes, floods or terrorist attacks).

But according to Yves Marignac, an independent expert consulted by the French newspaper, "even if one were to draw up a ranking of reactors according to their degree of safety, nothing guarantees that a catastrophe similar to Fukushima could not occur at the site considered most reliable."

Greenpeace: two at-risk power plants not far from Italy

That said, the plants under the greatest scrutiny are those at Fessenheim, in Alsace, which is over forty years old and located in a seismic zone. But according to 20 Minutes' analysis, the plants at Civaux (in west-central France) and Chooz (in the Ardennes, on the border with Belgium) also present risks. Problems have also been identified at the reactor under construction at Flamanville, on the English Channel.

According to the organisation Greenpeace, moreover, among the five power plants "to be closed as a priority," two are not so far from the border with Italy: these are the Tricastin and Bugey sites. The first is located halfway between the cities of Valence and Marseille. The second is in the suburbs of Lyon, two hours' drive from the Italian border.

In the opening image, an anti-nuclear demonstration in Great Britain in 2012 ©Matt Cardy/Getty Images