The ground around and beneath Niscemi has been sliding for ten days now, making this small Sicilian town of nearly 25,000 inhabitants the epicentre of a longstanding problem for Italy's fragile territory, scarred by neglect and unchecked development: hydrogeological instability. The cyclone and severe flooding that struck southern Italy in recent days have made the territory's vulnerability all the more evident. In the municipality of the province of Caltanissetta, in particular, the floods that began in mid-January triggered and reactivated large-scale landslides that are still evolving, with direct consequences for the safety of residents, road networks and essential services. The prosecutor's office in Gela has opened an investigation against persons unknown for culpable disaster and damage. But who are these unknown persons?

How the emergency in Niscemi was handled

The first critical event occurred on 16 January, when a landslide affected the town centre of Niscemi. It was on 25 January, however, that the situation deteriorated further: a second, larger landslide reactivated an old slip face on the southern edge of the built-up area, compromising roads, infrastructure and the structural stability of numerous buildings. The mayor ordered the establishment of a red zone and the evacuation of approximately 1,500 people. School activities were suspended "to assess the safety of the buildings and identify alternative solutions that would allow students to continue the school year".

Fire brigade teams and volunteers from various local civil protection organisations are still operating in the area, engaged in logistics and assistance to the population, and a red zone has been established. "We continue to work in close coordination with local bodies to monitor the effects of the severe weather and ensure the necessary support for the population," the Department announced. In the coming days, the University of Florence, a civil protection centre of expertise, will carry out initial on-site surveys, while a strengthening of monitoring through the involvement of the Italian Space Agency is being assessed. At the national level, the Council of Ministers has declared a state of emergency for Calabria, Sardinia and Sicily. To fund the first response measures, a total of 100 million euros has been allocated, against estimated damages of around 2 billion, divided among the three regions. The funds will cover the most urgent relief and assistance operations, while the overall assessment of damages is still under way.

What was lacking in prevention

Whenever events of this kind occur, the familiar refrain of "how good we are at managing emergencies" reliably resurfaces. But could more have been done to prevent it? From a geological standpoint, experts explain that what is happening in Niscemi is not an isolated anomaly. "The territory is no stranger to this type of phenomenon, which is closely linked to the geological configuration of the area," explains Giovanna Pappalardo, full professor of Applied Geology at the University of Catania. "The settlement sits on a succession of sands overlying layers of grey clays and marls, a stratigraphy that creates a sharp contrast in geotechnical properties and permeability." The sands encourage water infiltration, while the clays obstruct deep drainage, creating the conditions for slope instability. A similar episode had already occurred in 1997, when a landslide struck the southern part of the town, forcing the evacuation of around 400 people. "Today the situation recurs with even more significant characteristics," Pappalardo observes, "with a landslide front extending for about four kilometres and showing a progression towards the town centre. In this scenario, constant and accurate monitoring is essential."

Dipartimento Protezione Civile @DPCgov

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Frana Niscemi 🔴Tecnici al lavoro anche nella notte per isolare le condutture del gas nella zona rossa e consentire la riattivazione del servizio. Volontari, soccorritori e operatori in campo per l'assistenza, monitoraggio, ripristino viabilità.

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The Società Geologica Italiana also weighed in, pointing to factors already well known to risk planning. "The instability that occurred in the western sector of Niscemi is a complex landslide already recorded in the cartography of the 2006 Basin Management Plan for the Hydrogeological Configuration of Sicily," explains Carmelo Monaco, professor of Structural Geology and Geological Hazards at the University of Catania. "The area was classified as very high hazard, and some of the buildings had already been identified as being at high or very high risk."

The geological map and risk mapping

Alongside the emergency, geologists are pointing to a broader shortcoming in territorial knowledge. "Niscemi is not covered by the Geological Map at 1:50,000 scale, and its production is not currently planned either," states Rodolfo Carosi, president of the Società Geologica Italiana. "This means that part of the territory is not covered by modern geological knowledge." This is not a problem confined to Sicily: "Around 50 per cent of the national territory still lacks up-to-date geological mapping," Carosi adds, "and this makes it harder to plan prevention measures in a country that is highly exposed to hydrogeological instability." The geological map, required by law, is the cartographic representation of information gathered through extensive fieldwork to chart the characteristics and hydrogeological risks of every corner of the national territory. In Niscemi, the landslides continue to be monitored day by day, but the emergency places the immediate protection of people at the forefront and also refocuses attention on a structural issue: the capacity to prevent and reduce risk depends on a deep knowledge of the territory, especially in a context increasingly defined by more intense and frequent weather events.

wwfitalia @WWFitalia

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La frana di #Niscemi è un allarme su come a causa della crisi climatica i territori in Italia siano più fragili e i cittadini più in pericolo

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wwf.it/pandanews/ambi…

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The Italian Society of Environmental Geology has also weighed in on the debate sparked by the Niscemi emergency, raising the issue of citizens' awareness of risk. "Citizens must be informed, at the time of purchasing or building a property, of the geological characteristics of the area and of the potential risks," stressed national president Antonello Fiore. According to Fiore, none of the families now evacuated would have invested their savings in a home "knowing that one day a landslide would destroy it." In Italy, Sigea notes, citing Ispra data, more than 1.2 million people live in landslide-risk areas and over 6.8 million in flood-prone zones. Hence the call to make information more transparent in urban planning certificates and to amend the Consolidated Construction Act so that property sale deeds are accompanied by clear documentation on the geological hazards of the areas concerned. A need that, according to the scientific society, relates not only to the protection of citizens, but also to the ability to reduce, over time, the public costs associated with emergencies.

The role of climate change

The final culprit behind this foreseeable disaster is climate change. Which, however, is merely the instrument of execution — with the role of instigator played by us, by human beings: as science communicator Mario Tozzi puts it sarcastically, "But no, there's no climate crisis: extreme weather events are not increasing in number, and above all in intensity…". A way of saying the exact opposite: climate change amplifies already existing natural events, makes them more violent, more frequent and more damaging — acting, in short, as a risk multiplier.

In 2025, as the Legambiente Città Clima Observatory, produced in collaboration with the Unipol group, explained at the end of the year, flooding, wind damage and river flooding had increased in Italy, with 376 extreme weather events in total, making the past year the second highest for climate change-related episodes in the last eleven years, after 2023, which holds the record. A 5 per cent increase compared to 2024, driven above all by a large number of record temperature cases, landslides caused by heavy rainfall such as the one in Niscemi (up as much as 42.4 per cent), and wind damage.