A study by the University of Oxford provides the first estimate of the number of deaths that climate change will cause by reducing the availability of sufficient food.
The impact of climate change on food production will be responsible, by 2050, for over half a million more deaths than today. This is the finding of a study by the University of Oxford published in the scientific journal The Lancet.
Numerous analyses have shown that the rise in average global surface temperature will cause a sharp increase, worldwide, in extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and cyclones. These, in turn, will be responsible for a reduction in total agricultural output and will exacerbate the volatility of food commodity prices, putting the world's poorest populations at particular risk.
The report from the British university goes a step further, quantifying for the first time the cost, in terms of human lives, that will have to be paid. "Our study," explains Marco Springmann, who led the research team behind the report, "shows that even a modest decline in the amount of food available per person in the world can trigger significant changes in dietary patterns, with serious consequences for health."
Should no drastic environmental protection measures be adopted, the expected decline by 2050 amounts to 3.2 per cent: fruit and vegetables in particular would be consumed less (-4 per cent), while the availability of meat would fall by 0.7 per cent (all relative to levels recorded in 2010).
The outlook, in short, could be dramatic. All the more so given that temperature data recorded in recent months across ocean and land surfaces point to a succession of records. The figures for February have not yet been officially released, but meteorologist Eric Holthaus has stated in advance: "Normally my colleagues and I wait for the definitive data, but last month's figures are so extraordinary that there is no need to wait: February has shattered the all-time record that had been set in January."
According to the figures cited by Holthaus, the temperature in the second month of 2016 would have been 1.15–1.4 degrees centigrade above normal, and 0.2 degrees above that of the first thirty days of the year.