Helped by the collapse of coal and lignite, which dropped by a fifth, the European energy landscape breathes a sigh of relief. For the first time, wind and solar supplied more electricity than coal-fired power plants.
The numbers released a few days ago by the independent Berlin-based institute Agora Energiewende are decidedly positive. In 2019, the power sector of the EU-28 (including the United Kingdom) emitted 12 per cent less CO2 than the previous year. At the same time, the share of renewable energy in electricity generation rose to 35 per cent, setting a new record. Electricity production from renewables is now almost on a par with that from fossil fuels, which fell to 39.9 per cent — a full 2 percentage points in just one year.
The data are contained in the annual report "The European Power Sector in 2019", which collects and calculates trends in the European energy sector. Reading through the more than 40 pages of the report, there are two key points to bear in mind: first, for the first time since 1990, emissions from the power sector have fallen, and by no small margin (12 per cent), compared to the previous year. Second, for the first time, wind and solar supplied more electricity than coal-fired power plants. The share of green energy in electricity generation has in fact grown across the entire Union, reaching 34.6 per cent — 1.8 percentage points more than in 2018.
In a press release, Sandbag analyst Dave Jones states that "Europe is the world leader in rapidly replacing coal generation with wind and solar power". For this reason, "CO2 emissions from the power sector in the past year have fallen faster than ever before".
Every EU country that uses coal as an energy source recorded a decline in electricity production from that source — a full 150 terawatt-hours less, approximately 24 per cent. Together, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Italy accounted for 80 per cent of the fall in coal-generated electricity.
"The decline in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU is largely due to the price of CO2 emissions, which has continued to push climate-damaging energy sources out of the market," says Matthias Buck, head of European energy policy at Agora. He also adds that "the pace of expansion must accelerate further". By 2030, almost one third of total energy in the EU will need to come from renewable sources. This will require growth of 97 terawatt-hours every year until 2030 — 33 terawatt-hours more than what was added in 2019.
So is everything fine? Absolutely not. Greenhouse gas emissions are in fact continuing to rise, whereas they should be falling by at least 7.6 per cent a year. According to the recent report by the Global Carbon Project, CO2 emissions from fossil fuels increased again in 2019, albeit more slowly (0.6 per cent) than in previous years (+1.5 per cent in 2017 and +2.1 per cent in 2018). This is said to be due precisely to the substantial decline in coal consumption in the United States and the European Union, weaker economic growth and lower growth in electricity demand in China, and weaker economic growth combined with a strong monsoon in India.
Furthermore, as the Global Energy Monitor notes, Europe is planning to invest a total of 117 billion euros — both public and private — in new gas infrastructure (gas-fired power plants, liquefied natural gas import terminals and pipelines) that will increase Europe's gas import capacity by 30 per cent. Investments in new infrastructure in the United Kingdom and Germany alone account for 30 per cent of all new infrastructure, amounting to 35.9 billion euros, followed by Greece (14 billion euros), Poland (13.4 billion euros), Romania (12.8 billion euros) and Italy (11.6 billion euros). According to the authors, investing in new fossil gas infrastructure today creates the risk of failing to meet climate targets. "If we want to have any hope of resolving the ongoing climate crisis and avoiding the 340,000 deaths from air pollution that occur every year in Europe, we must reduce natural gas consumption by at least 80 per cent by 2030 and by 100 per cent by 2050 — not increase it," said Mark Z. Jacobson, professor at Stanford University.
The International Energy Agency shares the same view, having recorded in 2018 an increase in global CO2 emissions linked to the energy sector (+1.7 per cent to a historic high of 33.1 Gt of CO2). China, India and the United States still account for 85 per cent of the net increase in emissions, while emissions fell in Germany, Japan, Mexico, France and the United Kingdom. Forecasts point to an increase in the share of renewables (+300 per cent by 2040), but fossil fuels such as oil and gas will continue to grow, leaving Europe alone in the race to cut emissions.
