• A new study on atmospheric methane emissions has been published: over the past five years, they have grown at a record rate.
• Humans are responsible for two thirds of methane emissions.
• In 2021, the Global methane pledge was signed, aiming to reduce methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030.

In the short term, methane gas is considered the most effective lever for meeting energy demand, with the aim of supporting the transition towards renewable sources by 2030. This strategy has also been reaffirmed by Eni, which recently launched a new methane production site, despite the current climate emergency, exacerbated by 2023 — the hottest year ever recorded in the pre-industrial era (while 2024 looks set to break the new record). The justification put forward is economic in nature: methane represents a less costly solution that makes it possible to preserve the existing energy system, minimising change. However, on 10 September 2024, new scientific data raised serious concerns about the impact of methane in the atmosphere.

A study conducted by the Global Carbon Project, an organisation that seeks to quantify global greenhouse gas emissions and their causes, with contributions from 66 research institutes, detected an alarming increase in concentrations of this gas in the atmosphere: since 2007, concentrations have grown significantly, reaching a record rate of increase over the past five years — since measurements began in the 1980s. This situation is critical, as methane is the second most significant greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2), and contributes to roughly one third of global warming compared to the pre-industrial era. The data suggest that average global warming has been 1.2 degrees Celsius, of which approximately 0.5 is attributable to methane, as reported by the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (Ipcc).

Although methane has a shorter atmospheric lifespan than CO2, persisting in the atmosphere for around nine years, its warming power is far greater: more than 80 times that of CO2 over a twenty-year period, and around 30 times over a hundred-year horizon.

Reducing methane emissions is a matter of urgency

Although methane is considered a "cleaner" fossil fuel compared to coal and oil, eliminating its atmospheric emissions would bring immediate and tangible benefits. Yet the political will to pursue this path still appears weak. Major fossil fuel multinationals, such as Eni, argue that methane gas is indispensable for compensating for the structural shortcomings of renewable energy. These actors contend that we can continue to exploit methane until 2030, the date at which peak use is expected, before gradually reducing its importance in favour of cleaner sources.

These projections might seem realistic in a context of climate stability, but climate science teaches us that atmospheric conditions are changing in unpredictable ways. The only certainty is that global warming is increasing, and with it so too are extreme weather events, whose timing and intensity are becoming ever harder to anticipate.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including methane, is an urgent necessity to mitigate the effects of climate change. Although CO2 has a lasting impact in the atmosphere, it is methane that can deliver immediate results if tackled straight away.

What are the main sources of methane emissions?

Around 65 per cent of global methane emissions are anthropogenic in origin (in 2020, human activities emitted between 370 and 384 million tonnes of methane), stemming from activities such as livestock farming, coal extraction, the production and distribution of natural gas, rice cultivation and the management of organic waste in landfills. Among these, agriculture — in particular livestock farming and rice paddies — accounts for 40 per cent of emissions, while fossil fuels contribute 36 per cent and landfills 17 per cent. Emissions from fossil fuels have therefore now reached levels comparable to those produced by livestock farming.

The remaining 35 per cent of emissions comes from natural sources, principally the decomposition of organic matter in wetlands, rivers, lakes and waterlogged soils. Tropical wetlands are among the largest natural emitters, but permafrost too, which is thawing as a result of global warming, is beginning to release growing quantities of methane.

Pep Canadell @pepcanadell

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The @gcarbonproject has published its four Global Methane Budget as an ERL paper and pre-print in ESSD; links at the end of thread.

Humans are now responsible for two-thirds or more of all global CH4 emissions

It covers the period 2000-2020, with some extensions up to 2023

♥ 160💬 5 10 set 2024 · Apri su X →

Emissions on track for +3°C by 2100

Uncontrolled methane emissions represent a serious threat. The atmospheric concentrations observed recently are aligned with climate scenarios that project a temperature increase of up to 3 degrees Celsius by 2100.

To keep global warming below 2 degrees, as established by the Paris Agreement of 2015, it is essential to drastically reduce methane emissions. The goal is to halve emissions of this gas (by around 45 per cent) by 2050. This is an ambitious but achievable target, the study says.

Furthermore, in the oil and gas sector, the International energy agency (Iea) has estimated that 40 per cent of emissions could be reduced with no net cost. In agriculture too, significant reductions can be achieved through the use of feed additives, which reduce emissions produced by ruminants, and practices such as intermittent rice paddy drainage. Methane produced in landfills, meanwhile, can be captured and reused to generate energy or heat.

In 2021, many countries signed the Global methane pledge, committing to reduce methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030. However, despite these commitments, methane emissions continue to grow, indicating that more coercive action is needed to compel the largest emitters to meet the established target.