The pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, submitted to the United Nations by governments around the world, are still dramatically insufficient. Six weeks before the start of the twenty-sixth World Climate Conference (Cop 26), to be held in Glasgow in the first half of November, the UN has issued yet another warning about NDCs, Nationally Determined Contributions. These are the commitments made by 191 states with the aim of meeting the targets set by the Paris Agreement of 2015.

António Guterres: "The direction is catastrophic"

The Paris Agreement stipulated that the rise in average global temperature must not exceed 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, compared to pre-industrial levels — while remaining "as close as possible to 1.5 degrees". To achieve this, CO2 and other climate-altering gas emissions must be cut drastically and immediately. Yet the calculations made on the basis of the NDCs submitted so far indicate that the world is instead heading towards global warming of +2.7 degrees.

The report assessing the pledges made so far was published on Friday 17 September. The Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, spoke of a "catastrophic direction": "The failure we are heading towards in not meeting climate targets will be measured in terms of the number of deaths and livelihoods destroyed." Hence yet another appeal launched by the Portuguese diplomat to governments.

Only 113 countries have submitted new emission reduction pledges

The submission timelines for the NDCs further confirm the lack of commitment on the part of governments. The Paris Agreement required them to be sent to the UN by the end of 2020. By that date, fewer than half of nations worldwide had done so, while by 30 July 2021 the number had reached only 113 (with these countries accounting for just 49 per cent of global emissions).

This is why a handful of "one-off" commitments — such as those made by the United States and the European Union, which have stated their intention to reduce their methane emissions by 30 per cent over the next ten years — cannot be enough. Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of the Unfccc, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, confirmed that "the figures on greenhouse gases continue to move in the wrong direction".

António Guterres ✓ @antonioguterres

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Today’s @UNFCCC report shows we are on a catastrophic pathway to 2.7°C of global heating.

Leaders must change course and deliver on #ClimateAction, or people in all countries will pay a tragic price.

No more ignoring science.
No more ignoring the demands of people everywhere.

♥ 500💬 55 17 set 2021 · Apri su X →

CO2 emissions set to rise by 16 per cent in 2030, compared to 2010

It is worth considering that if the NDCs of all countries that have signed the Paris Agreement are taken into account, emissions are projected to rise by 16 per cent between now and 2030, compared to 2010. By contrast, to remain below 1.5 degrees they would need to be cut by 40 per cent, and by 25 per cent if one were to "settle for" the 2-degree target.

Hence the calculations by UN experts and the forecast of a 2.7-degree increase by the end of the century. For this reason, according to Patricia Espinosa, "Cop 26 must be a success".