Global carbon dioxide emissions, linked to the combustion of fossil fuels, are likely to record a slight decline over the course of 2026. The forecast is contained in the 21st edition of the annual monitoring report published by the Global Carbon Project, produced by a group of 140 scientists. If the data are confirmed, it will be the first time such a contraction has occurred since the pandemic, in 2020. 

Max Roser ✓ @MaxCRoser

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This is based on the preliminary estimates from the Global Carbon Project, published today.

Global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels are projected to fall in 2026.

♥ 195💬 15 10 nov 2026 · Apri su X →

The positive impact of renewables on the decline in emissions from coal, oil and gas

According to the researchers' calculations, in absolute terms emissions should fall from 38.3 billion tonnes of CO2 in 2025 to 38.2 billion in 2026, a decline of 0.4 per cent. An encouraging figure, but one that remains far from sufficient compared with what would be needed to limit the rise in average global temperature to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius — or at least to overshoot that threshold by as little and for as short a time as possible, between now and the end of the century — relative to pre-industrial levels. That is, before humanity began burning coal, oil and gas on a massive scale to power its production.

In the previous report, by contrast, an increase of 1.4 per cent had been recorded relative to 2024. Progress in the renewable energy sector has certainly weighed on the current year's result. Last April, a report by the think tank Ember highlighted the extraordinary growth of solar and wind energy across the 74 countries of the Climate Vulnerable Forum — the poorest and most vulnerable nations to the impacts of climate change.

The impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade

A few months earlier, the European Electricity Review 2026 report from the same institute had explained that in the Old Continent, in 2025, solar and wind produced 30 per cent of European electricity, surpassing fossil fuels for the first time, which stood at 29 per cent. Then in August, an analysis by Standard & Poor's explained that the United States is heading for a record year, with 45 gigawatts of new installed capacity expected by 31 December. A paradoxical effect of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" has pushed many companies to accelerate their renewable projects in order to take advantage of the last months of available tax credits.

Carbon Brief ✓ @CarbonBrief

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NEW – Analysis: Fossil-fuel CO2 emissions set to dip in 2026 as Iran conflict hits oil use

✍️ Written by @hausfath and Pierre Freiedlingstein

Read here: buff.ly/l26fGuf

♥ 49💬 3 10 nov 2026 · Apri su X →

It was not, however, solely the strong performance of clean energy sources that brought about the slight contraction identified by the Global Carbon Project: a significant role was also played by the Middle East conflict, and in particular the United States and Israel's attack on Iran, which triggered a prolonged period of severe restrictions on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of the world's traded oil passes. 

A near-term emissions peak is not yet in sight

Just as was the case in 2020 with Covid, then, there is a risk that the fall in emissions is linked primarily to exogenous factors. And that any hoped-for easing of tensions in the Gulf could trigger a return to growing emissions from coal, oil and gas exploitation over the course of 2027. The report's own authors explain that the data do not in fact allow one to envisage an emissions peak in the near term. This is also because, when other sources of carbon dioxide dispersal are taken into account (deforestation, wildfires, land consumption and industrial activities), 2026 is projected to see a fresh increase on the previous year (43.3 billion tonnes of CO2, compared with 42.8 billion in 2025). 

"The decline is encouraging," said Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, who led the study, "but a reduction driven in part by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution. The only possible response is a rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. Renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting demand growth, but further acceleration is needed for global emissions to peak and begin a lasting decline." 

Falls in fossil fuel emissions in China, the United States and the EU

At a geographical level, the report explains that China's emissions in 2026 are expected to fall by 0.9 per cent, after two years of modest growth. In particular, it is emissions linked to oil that are contracting, against a slight decline in those from coal. Here too this is a positive figure, bearing in mind that the Asian nation is responsible for 32 per cent of global emissions linked to fossil fuels. 

The United States is also forecast to see a decline (of 1.3 per cent), driven mainly by a reduction in coal use. In the European Union the contraction is expected to amount to 1.5 per cent, while Japan is set to record a fall of one percentage point. In India, by contrast, an increase of 4.4 per cent is anticipated.