Elections in Turkey: it will be the run-off that decides Erdoğan's fate
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The appointment is pushed back to 28 May: it is the first time in twenty years that President Erdoğan has failed to secure 50 per cent of the vote.
Elections in Turkey: it will be the run-off that decides Erdoğan's fate
The appointment is pushed back to 28 May: it is the first time in twenty years that President Erdoğan has failed to secure 50 per cent of the vote.
It will be the run-off on 28 May that decides who will be the next president of Turkey. Neither the incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan nor the opposition challenger Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu managed to prevail in the first round of the Turkish elections, at the end of an intense polling day marked by a turnout of over 88 per cent. While the first partial results gave the "Sultan" of the Justice and Development Party (Akp) above 50 per cent, as the day wore on the Republican People's Party (Chp) candidate Kılıçdaroğlu closed the gap steadily. Neither candidate, however, managed to obtain the 50 per cent plus one of the votes needed to win without going to the run-off, scheduled in 14 days' time.
Erdoğan below 50 per cent: first run-off in 20 years
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has not won and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has not lost. This is the only certain verdict delivered by the ballot boxes to Turkish voters, who will have to wait until 28 May to learn the future leader of the country. Despite failing to meet pre-election expectations — on which, it should be said, analysts were far from unanimous — Kılıçdaroğlu achieved a result never reached before: it is the first time in twenty years, since Erdoğan has been in power in Turkey, that he has been dragged into a run-off. The Chp candidate, the leader of the main opposition party, backed by a highly heterogeneous coalition made up of six parties, finished the count with 44.76 per cent of the vote: "The will for change in society is above 50%. If our nation says we are going to a second round, we will absolutely win the run-off," Kılıçdaroğlu said during the night.
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Erdoğan stopped at 49.24 per cent. The leader's initial lead gradually narrowed throughout the night, eventually falling below the fateful threshold of 50 per cent plus one. Erdoğan had started with a 56 per cent lead at the beginning of the evening: a huge and ephemeral advantage, due to the fact that the first data to come in were from small villages in Anatolia, the president's historic stronghold. That margin then narrowed progressively as results arrived from the major urban centres. In territorial terms, the vote met expectations: Kılıçdaroğlu prevailed in the large cities of the west and in the Kurdish-majority territories of the south-east, while Erdoğan confirmed his dominance in the countryside and his central heartlands, some of which were affected by the devastating earthquakes of February.
La #Turchia ha votato così. La straordinaria novità è che il sud-est a maggioranza curda ha scelto il candidato Chp. E questo risultato ha due padri: Demirtas e Kilicdaroglu. Contestare le scelte di quest’ultimo, dentro l’opposizione, sarebbe ora un errore fatale #elezioniturchia
The long-distance clash and criticism of the counting process
Despite the disadvantage, the opposition repeatedly claimed to be in the lead, levelling criticism at the government agency Anadolu, which had already found itself at the centre of scandals during past electoral contests and had been accused on several occasions of withholding data when it proved unfavourable to Erdoğan. The apparent initial distance allowed Erdoğan, who was thought to be based in Ankara, to make a surprise appearance in Istanbul and speak late at night, presenting himself as the winner: "We are well ahead. Others are trying to deceive people by saying they are in front." Once the outcome of the count appeared incontrovertible, the president acknowledged the need for a second round, whose result he said he would respect.
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Elections in Turkey: Erdoğan wins in parliament
Erdoğan does, however, win in parliament. The governing coalition led by the Akp secured 324 of the 600 seats in the assembly. The opposition coalition led by the Chp received 35 per cent of the vote and a total of 211 seats. The left-wing coalition driven by the Hdp, the pro-Kurdish party, won 65 seats and cleared the 10 per cent electoral threshold; its role looks set to be crucial in the run-off. The Hdp had extended informal support to Kılıçdaroğlu, but many are asking whether this balance could shift with the entry onto the scene of Sinan Oğan, leader of the far-right conservative party Ancestral Alliance, who came third in the presidential race with 5 per cent of the vote. Assuming Oğan is actually capable of directing these votes towards one of the two main run-off candidates, many find it hard to see how both Oğan and the Hdp — who pursue diametrically opposed ideas on many points — could agree to converge in an anti-Erdoğan front behind the Chp candidate. Oğan could also choose to align himself with Erdoğan in a conservative bloc that could prove decisive at the ballot box. He remains the true wild card between now and polling day in the run-off.