Brazil elections, Lula could become president as early as the first round
Environment — di Andrea Barolini
Less than a week from the vote, the latest polls show left-wing candidate Lula with a clear lead over President Bolsonaro.
Brazil elections, Lula could become president as early as the first round
Less than a week from the vote, the latest polls show left-wing candidate Lula with a clear lead over President Bolsonaro.
In Brazil, the final week before the first round of the presidential elections, scheduled for Sunday 2 October, has begun. The positive news, for all those who care about the climate, the environment and biodiversity, is that left-wing candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, already president of Brazil from 2003 to 2011, is shown with a clear lead in the latest polls.
🇧🇷 Former president Lula da Silva's lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the opinion polls is so big he could win the election without the need for a second-round run-off. euronews.com/2022/09/24/bra…
Lula attributed 47 per cent, against Bolsonaro's 33
According to a Datafolha survey, the Workers' Party leader is credited with 47–48 per cent of voting intentions, against 37 per cent for the current far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro. A figure that, precisely, gives cause for hope to those who care about ecology. Bolsonaro, an outspoken climate sceptic, has tolerated, if not actively encouraged, deforestation practices in the Amazon. An utterly reckless policy given the climate crisis currently under way and the risks it poses for future generations.
… with that kind of margin I think even Bolsonaro will see writing on the wall & understand military & other allies won’t go with him on Jan 6-style adventure. There’s a difference. I still bit skeptical of polls but let’s see, 6 days to go
For days, moreover, the majority of polls have been favouring Lula, who appears to be benefiting from a favourable surge. Voting intentions indicate a convergence on Lula even among voters initially oriented towards other candidates, as in the case of Ciro Gomes, a centre-left candidate credited with 7 per cent, third in the likely final standings ahead of Simone Tebet, who is standing on a centre-right ticket expected to receive around 5 per cent of the vote.
The 50 per cent threshold to avoid a second round in the Brazil elections
At the same time, Lula has secured a series of important endorsements. Chief among them are those of former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (who called on Brazilians to vote "for democracy") and of his former environment minister Marina Silva, who, after a lengthy back-and-forth, decided to officially declare her support for the progressive candidate.
It is therefore not out of the question that the left-wing candidate could widen his lead over his ultra-conservative rival still further, and surpass the 50 per cent threshold, which would allow him to be elected as early as the first round. If not, a run-off will be necessary, currently scheduled for 30 October.
Bolsonaro's supporters are already talking of possible fraud
For his part, Bolsonaro has repeatedly implied that if he is not crowned the winner on 2 October, it will be due to electoral fraud: "We will win in the first round," he declared confidently at a rally. At the same time, his supporters on social media are already talking of fraud. And some are already beginning to fear a rerun of what happened with Donald Trump, when, following the American president's defeat, Congress in Washington was stormed.