Penguins, among all birds, are the ones that attract the most affection, probably because of their comical gait on land and their inability to fly. Among the 17 existing species, one stands out: the only one that lives near the Equator and is considered the rarest penguin species in the world, the Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus).

These small birds (less than fifty centimetres tall), endemic to the Galápagos archipelago, were placed on the endangered species list in 2000. The number of penguins had in fact plummeted to just a few hundred individuals, mainly due to El Niño, a phenomenon that raises ocean temperatures and creates climatic imbalances that in the mid-1980s reduced the population by 77 per cent.

A new study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, offers reassurance about the future of the species, however: over the past thirty years, the Galápagos penguin population is said to have doubled. The turnaround, according to researchers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, is thought to be due to changes in winds and ocean currents that have increased the flow of the cold current running from Antarctica towards the Galápagos Islands, creating an ideal habitat for the penguins.

The "cold pool" that has formed is rich in nutrients and has encouraged the growth of algae and fish, to the delight of the penguins, whose numbers, according to the research, have risen to over a thousand individuals.

The shift in winds and ocean currents may have been caused by both natural variability and climate change. This change, the study notes, could expand the area of cold water further north, along the coasts of Isabela and Fernandina islands, drawing fish populations there, followed by the animals that feed and breed in cold waters.

The phenomenon could, however, be short-lived, and ocean conditions could change, leading to a decline in penguin populations.

"Penguins are innocent bystanders, at the mercy of shifts in currents and climate, feasting or enduring times of famine," said the study's lead author, Kristopher Karnauskas.

The new findings provide fresh insights for improving penguin conservation, for instance by stepping up efforts along the northern coasts of the islands and expanding the northern marine protected areas. Karnauskas argues that most marine organisms will be negatively affected by rising ocean temperatures and ocean acidification.

"Climate change brings new and growing stresses to ecosystems, but biology sometimes surprises us — there may be small outposts where life could thrive, if only by coincidence."