Six years ago Indonesia was shrouded in the smoke of wildfires; today it is held up as an example in the fight against deforestation. But the situation remains fragile.
It is autumn 2015 and vast swathes of Indonesia are shrouded in a toxic, sepia-coloured haze. Hospitals are packed with patients struggling with respiratory problems; orangutans are fleeing the trees they have always lived in. This is the devastating impact of fires that for more than two months have swallowed millions of hectares of forest. April 2021: the World Resources Institute publishes the Global Forest Review, the atlas on the state of forests around the world, in which it praises Indonesia, holding it up as the example to follow for its impressive results in the fight against deforestation. Let us try to understand what has changed over these six years, and whether this progress is set to last.
The consequences of the 2015 fires in Indonesia read like a war bulletin. More than 2.6 million hectares of forests, peatlands and other land were set alight. That is roughly twice the size of Montenegro. In October, emissions were averaging 15.95 million tonnes of CO2 per day — more than the entire United States economy produces. The air near the fires remained permanently above a score of 1,000 on the PSI (Pollutant Standards Index) air quality index; the toxicity threshold is 300.
There is little doubt as to who was responsible for this environmental disaster. No sooner had the flames died down than the first oil palm seedlings were already sprouting from the charred remains of the land. For wood-pulp producers, too, replacing forests with vast plantations was a highly attractive prospect.
Hence the stance taken by the Indonesian government, which introduced a temporary moratorium on licences for new oil palm plantations and a second moratorium — this time permanent — on the conversion of primary forests and peatlands.
The results were immediate. According to the Global Forest Review, deforestation in Indonesia peaked in 2016 with the destruction of 929,000 hectares of primary humid forests. The very next year that figure had plummeted to 373,000 hectares, continuing to decline steadily to 270,000 hectares in 2020. Four consecutive years of falling deforestation are an exception, the report underlines — certainly not the rule. In 2020, a wet climate also worked in the forests' favour, making the spread of fires more difficult; the opposite had happened in 2019.
Primary forests, which numerically account for around 26 per cent of global forests, are distinguished by the fact that they are untouched by agriculture and industry. Their particular characteristics make them capable of absorbing CO2 for centuries to come, far more effectively than any other tree-covered area. Protecting them, therefore, means investing in the future of the climate.
That is what the government of Jakarta has done — on one hand through the moratoriums and on the other through social and agrarian reforms that have alleviated poverty and encouraged sustainable land use. In 2020, the mandate of the Peatland Restoration Agency was extended for a further four years and its remit was broadened to include mangroves as well. A number of regulations adopted at local level have pointed in the same direction.
A sigh of relief is warranted, but it is no reason to let our guard down. The case of Brazil is emblematic. Between 2004 and 2016 it made enormous strides, going from 2 million to 830,000 hectares of primary humid forest destroyed in a single year, only to swiftly undo almost all of that progress. The deforestation curve surged upward again, reaching 1.7 million hectares in 2020 — an increase of as much as 25 per cent compared with the previous year.
Indonesia, like other economies around the world, is now trying to recover from the pandemic crisis. In November it passed an 'omnibus' law aimed at reinvigorating business, attracting investment and creating jobs by significantly streamlining various bureaucratic and administrative processes. Unfortunately, however, a number of environmental protection regulations also fell victim to this wave of simplification.
Also in response to the Covid emergency, the government has pledged to nip the problem of food insecurity in the bud. To that end, it has identified vast areas to be converted to agricultural production: 770,000 hectares in Central Kalimantan, 2 million in Papua and 32,000 in North Sumatra. In the past, some environmental organisations have warned, similar projects have proved to be "a social and environmental disaster." Very little food was actually produced, while vast areas of forest were set ablaze.
The closely watched subject, however, remains palm oil. The moratorium has had an impact, at least partly preventing virgin forests from being sacrificed to make way for new plantations. Part of the credit also goes to all those people who, across every corner of the planet, contributed to a massive grassroots mobilisation on the issue. If countless companies have removed this ingredient from their baked-goods recipes or detergent formulations, it is precisely thanks to pressure from consumers.
For some time the prices of this commodity have been falling, making it an unattractive business proposition. In recent months, however, they have recovered to reach levels last seen in 2012, one of the worst years in terms of deforestation. This is happening just as the moratorium approaches its expiry date, with no clarity on whether it will be renewed.
Contacted by the outlet Mongabay, environmentalists urge us not to let our guard down. The fact that its pace has slowed must not make us forget that deforestation in Indonesia nonetheless exists. The nationally determined contributions (i.e. emissions reduction targets under the Paris Agreement) also leave room for the destruction of 325,000 hectares of forest every year. Between now and 2030, the total would therefore amount to 3.25 million hectares, an area larger than Belgium. All of this while scrupulously honouring the commitments made. In short, the battle to defend the forests of South-East Asia is far from over.
