As many as 826 billion euros in monetised benefits per year between now and 2030. Around 8.5 million full-time jobs. But above all, going beyond the purely economic dimension, nearly 34,000 premature deaths avoided every year. These are the benefits that, at European level, energy savings linked to decarbonisation could deliver. They are estimated in the report "Europe's climate dividend: Economic benefits, jobs, health and lower energy costs", produced by Climact and promoted by the consortium of the LIFE Plan4Climate project and by CAN Europe, of which WWF Italia is a member.

The study comes at a delicate moment for European climate policy: on one hand, in March 2026 the EU adopted a binding target of a 90 per cent reduction in emissions by 2040; on the other, the debate over the alleged "social unsustainability" of this kind of transition is increasingly open. At the same time, the volatility of oil prices, tied to tensions in the Gulf, highlights the risks of dependence on imported fossil fuels: according to the European Environment Agency, extreme weather and climate events cost the EU around 822 billion euros between 1980 and 2024 and caused more than 441,000 deaths.

Decarbonisation is in everyone's interest

Under a decarbonisation scenario to 2040, the report finds that within the European Union alone more than 826 billion euros in monetised benefits per year would be generated by 2030, rising to nearly 2 trillion by 2050 (around 13 per cent of EU GDP). These benefits stem specifically from lower energy costs, improved public health, fewer working days lost to illness and reduced climate damage. In 2030, these totals correspond to 8.5 million jobs, nearly 34,000 premature deaths avoided every year, 8,000 fewer hospitalisations and 3.3 million sick days avoided. Avoided energy costs reach up to 713 euros per capita.

National-level results can be consulted in the Co-Benefits Explorer, a tool that among other things allows users to select scenarios, explore indicators and export results and charts, for the EU and for partner countries. The estimates are partial: the Co-Benefits Explorer only quantifies the benefits linked to reductions in energy consumption. In Italy, the measures considered account for around 57 per cent of the emissions reduction by 2040 and 65 per cent by 2050 (60 per cent and 64 per cent at EU level). The remainder of the transition, and its benefits, is not quantified. Avoided unemployment, energy poverty and jobs also have an economic value that is only partially captured in the totals. According to the authors, factoring in the entire transition would therefore yield values higher than those reported. In other words: the estimates contained here, which already appear high, are in fact conservative.

The data for Italy

For Italy, monetised benefits amount to 84.2 billion euros per year in 2030 and rise to 227.8 billion in 2050. For every euro invested, around three would be returned: against an average investment of 47.7 billion per year between 2026 and 2050, the average return is over 143 billion per year. Of these, 64.9 billion correspond to the cost of damages caused by CO2 emissions through climate change, a co-benefit with an impact that is not only national but global. The remaining portion directly affects the Italian economy, with the reduction in energy costs as the main component. The effort is concentrated in the first phase, up to 2030, but the investment would already pay for itself by 2032, with 383 billion invested against 428 billion in cumulative co-benefits. By 2042, benefits would double (1,743 billion against 870 invested) and by 2050 they would triple (3,588 against 1,192). Over a ten-year horizon, 592.8 billion invested would return 924.8 billion.

Savings on energy costs would be the main component: each citizen would save 533 euros a year on their energy bills in 2030, 1,347 in 2040 and 1,895 in 2050. In 2030, the most significant contribution comes from reduced oil consumption (523 euros per capita), followed by reduced gas consumption (114 euros). Not bad given the current context of sky-high bills (not to mention fuel prices). Of course, the report cautions: in a context of economic instability and growing inequality, the benefits of the transition can affect the lives of individuals only if accompanied by policies based on equity criteria.

Employment, energy poverty and health

On this point, the report also attempts to quantify the benefits of full decarbonisation that are not strictly economic but more closely linked to quality of life in the broader sense. It states, for example, that investments would support 676,000 new jobs in 2030 and around 506,000 on average each year, for a cumulative total of 2.7 million by 2030 and 12.7 million by 2050. The construction sector accounts for more than half of the total, with around 230,000 workers per year in residential buildings and 70,000 in commercial ones. Transport would generate around 187,000. Interventions in residential construction, above all external wall insulation, would lift between 1.47 and 2.34 million people out of energy poverty by 2030. The baseline estimates of people in this situation — around 5.9 million according to the European Energy Poverty Observatory and around 9.4 million according to Italy's Social Climate Plan — would be exceeded by 2037.

And what about health? Improvements in air quality and indoor conditions would prevent 3,509 premature deaths in 2030 and on average 3,717 per year between 2026 and 2050 (2,078 from air pollution and 1,639 from indoor conditions). In total, around 12,300 deaths would be avoided by 2030, 50,000 by 2040 and 93,000 by 2050, along with around 925 fewer hospitalisations per year.

And then there is of course the environmental impact: in the scenario analysed, between 2026 and 2030 around 553,000 tonnes of nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and sulphur dioxide would be avoided altogether. By 2040 the total would rise to around 1.95 million tonnes. To put this in perspective, in 2024 Italian emissions of these three pollutants amounted to around 728,000 tonnes, according to data from the Istituto superiore per la protezione e la ricerca ambientale. On average, the reduction would be around 117,800 tonnes per year.

WWF's demands

For WWF Italia, the objectives of the Piano nazionale integrato per l'energia e il clima are not sufficiently ambitious relative to European legislation, and every year of delay pushes the benefits described in the report further away. The organisation is calling on the Government for a clear public investment plan to 2030 and 2040, with ambitious climate and social objectives, starting with the implementation of the current Pniec and its revision towards 2040. It is also calling for 100 per cent of the revenues from the ETS, the European greenhouse gas emissions trading system, to be directed towards climate policies, and for the Social Climate Fund to be used for structural solutions to energy poverty.