The United States is the top trading partner for the Italian wine sector. Now, with tariffs in place, things risk changing dramatically, and heavy losses are on the horizon.

On the evening of 2 April, US President Donald Trump announced a substantial increase in tariffs on foreign goods. The measure hit more than a hundred countries to varying degrees, establishing a common baseline of 10 percent, on top of which an additional percentage was calculated — in economically questionable fashion — based on individual countries and their trade flows with the US.

Trump called it "Liberation Day," and it had been at least a century since the United States had adopted such extreme protectionist measures. Among the countries affected is Italy, for which tariffs have been set at 20 percent (as for the entire European Union). The most export-oriented sectors will be heavily damaged, and among them is the wine industry. The United States is the world's largest buyer of Italian wine, and the new tariffs are set to reduce American demand. For Italian viticulture, already under pressure from the effects of climate change, difficult times lie ahead. In the meantime, the negative effects on the sector have been felt for several weeks already — that is, before Trump even implemented his protectionist measures.

On Wednesday 2 April, after weeks of threats and denials, US President Donald Trump announced the new tariffs. The levies took effect immediately, starting from a minimum of 10 percent for all US trading partners, with reciprocal tariffs added on top — that is, additional charges for those countries which, according to Trump, disadvantage the United States in trade relations. These measures were added to tariffs already in force: 25 percent on all steel and aluminium imports, on goods imported from Canada and Mexico not covered by the free trade agreement, and on automobiles and their components.

The United States imports far more than it exports, with a trade balance gap exceeding one billion dollars per year. Trump said he wanted to put an end to "unfair trade practices" by foreign countries and to protect the American economy, but his measures as conceived will do nothing but drive up costs and prices of goods for everyone — including the United States itself. The shock is already being felt, with stock markets around the world recording catastrophic losses for days on end.

Trump's calculations translated into 20 percent tariffs for the European Union. Among the sectors hardest hit in Italy is the agri-food industry, and in particular the world of wine — just as the world, US buyers included, gathers at one of the most important trade fairs in the sector, Vinitaly, taking place in Verona from 6 to 9 April.

#Vinitaly, ecco quanto i #vini italiani costeranno agli americani dopo i dazi di #Trump. DATI e INFOGRAFICA @SocialMasaf @FrancescoLollo1 @VinitalyTasting @realDonaldTrump @WhiteHouse @ITAtradeagency @GiorgiaMeloni @Palazzo_Chigi https://t.co/c0vRNVPmZo pic.twitter.com/1JypQUc1hi

The value of Italian agri-food exports to the US stands at 7.8 billion euros, with wine alone accounting for more than 1.9 billion euros — making the United States the top trading partner for Italian wineries. As Lamberto Frescobaldi, president of Unione italiana vini (Uiv), pointed out, "with the crippling 20 percent American tariffs, the market will have to cut its revenues by 323 million euros per year, or risk seeing a large share of our production pushed out of the market altogether." Italian wine, appreciated in the United States for its quality and competitive price, will now face a sharp rise in cost, and the risk is that American buyers may look elsewhere — first to domestic US wine production, such as that of California, and then to other countries on which lower tariffs have been imposed, such as Argentina and Chile. Among the most at-risk products are Moscato d'Asti, Friulian Pinot Grigio, Chianti Classico, Prosecco, Lambrusco, and the great Piedmontese reds — but also wines from territories that have historically been less present in the US market and have only recently begun to make inroads there.

"The wines of Romagna do not have a longstanding or massive presence in the United States, unlike other Italian denominations. Nevertheless, in recent years we have begun to invest and to receive our first significant results, particularly with our Sangiovese and Albana," explains Aldo Rametta, co-owner of the wineries Ronchi di Castelluccio and Poggio della Dogana. "We have worked hard and invested heavily to start exporting wines from both of our estates to the United States, to consolidate important commercial contacts, and to begin making a name for ourselves. At a business level, the risk we face is of seeing all the efforts of recent years come to nothing."

In mid-March, Trump had announced that tariffs on wine, champagne, and spirits produced in the European Union would be as high as 200 percent. That was enough to bring shipments of Italian wine to a halt.

Italian wine is shipped overseas by sea, and between port dispatches, loading times, and long ocean crossings, it takes weeks to reach its destination. Trump's announcement of imminent 200 percent tariffs was sufficient to freeze many shipments, as American importers feared being caught with a sudden price spike on orders already in transit. The result was that from March onwards, entire consignments of bottles were left sitting in Italian ports, causing financial losses for Italian wineries. But also for those American venues that for years have championed a different philosophy — that of natural wine, which relies precisely on imports. "From importers to restaurateurs, wine shop owners, fair organisers, journalists and bloggers — it is an entire ecosystem dedicated to natural wine that could be under threat," commented Raisin, the app used worldwide to highlight venues, winemakers and natural wine fairs, in response to the threat of 200 percent tariffs.

Prosecco has found strong and growing demand in the American market. The tariffs could hamper access to our products and drive up costs for consumers.

Stefano Gava, General Director of Val d'Oca

"The wine sector will suffer enormous damage. Just consider that the price of our products in the US market sits at around 13–14 dollars, and with the tariffs they risk rising above 15," commented Giuseppe Bursi, President of Cantine Settesoli (Agrigento). "The situation is therefore complicated — I hope the European Union will intervene decisively on the matter." Stefano Gava, General Director of Val d'Oca (Valdobbiadene), meanwhile stressed that "Prosecco, a symbol of our winemaking tradition and an expression of quality and authenticity, has found strong and growing demand in the American market. The tariffs could hamper access to our products and drive up costs for consumers, reducing sales volumes and damaging the commercial relationships we have built over the years."

At the beginning of April, the tariffs on Italy came into effect for real, set at 20 percent rather than 200 percent. It could have been worse compared to the scenario that had been feared, but the negative effects on Italian wine producers are being felt nonetheless, and many things are set to change.