With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, we are living through an unprecedented energy crisis. Not even the 1973 oil crisis, the year in which the price of crude oil and its derivatives rocketed following the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War, caused a global upheaval of this magnitude.

Unlike in 1973, as explained by LifeGate scientific director Simone Molteni in an interview broadcast on Le Iene, the crisis is not confined to the oil sector but affects the entire energy supply chain, from the procurement of raw materials to the distribution of finished products. The cost of electricity, a primary and essential commodity, has soared, given that in Italy production depends on gas for 50 per cent, and 90 per cent of the total gas supply is imported.

Watch the full report.

How did we get here? Over the past twenty years the geopolitics of energy has changed considerably, and Italy's dependence on Russia has deepened. Price volatility has also increased — tenfold, it could be said — driven in part by the strongly speculative dynamics that dominate the energy market, for which many are calling for a complete overhaul of pricing rules.

The energy crisis we are experiencing, deeply intertwined with the global climate crisis, is having and will continue to have, in the long term — for at least the next four winters, it is estimated — a significant impact on Italy's growth and way of life, echoing what happened in the 1970s when energy was the main driver of the worsening of the economic crisis, with major knock-on effects on inflation and unemployment.

Will sanctions be enough to stop the war? Many argue they will not; what could help is reducing energy purchases from Russia. In 2020, the country had exported products worth a total of 330 billion dollars — approximately 305 billion euros — to the rest of the world, roughly half of which were of fossil origin.

Now that the war is helping to push prices higher, petroleum products alone could generate revenues equivalent to the entire export total of two years ago. Or even more: in 2022, Russia is estimated to earn around 100 billion dollars from oil, 200 billion from gas and 40 billion from coal. These figures are on top of the 60 billion dollars derived from the sale of materials such as aluminium, iron, copper, nickel, gold and platinum, and the 15 billion from grain. For Putin, the war is a profitable business.

Small adjustments for big changes

Nevertheless, it is possible to become less dependent on Russian gas and save on energy bills — while also fighting the environmental crisis — by collectively eliminating a great deal of waste and avoiding the risk of rationing.

"The best thing is for everyone to become more aware of how much energy we needlessly waste. We must save as much as possible in order to make ourselves independent," commented Matteo Viviani of Le Iene during the report.

At our own level, everyone can do something. Avoiding waste is the first step towards saving energy. Forty per cent of final energy consumption is attributable to buildings, and therefore also to the energy consumed at home. Simply paying attention to switching off lights and electronic devices saves gas and helps to build up stocks in storage facilities ahead of very harsh winters. To reduce energy consumption further, it is essential to adopt efficient technologies — including heat pumps for heating and cooling buildings — and to encourage the rational use of energy in buildings.

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In occasione della Giornata internazionale del #risparmioenergetico del 18 febbraio #ENEA presenta una guida in 20 punti contro il caro-bollette e gli #sprechi di energia. Bastano alcuni comportamenti quotidiani per risparmiare fino al 10% sulla bolletta!

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The consumer association Altroconsumo has estimated that by cutting back on gas systems — heating, domestic hot water and hobs — it would be possible to avoid consuming 2.5 billion cubic metres of gas per year. Useful steps in this regard include using a pressure cooker or turning off the gas hob once boiling temperature has been reached. Taking shorter showers or lowering the boiler thermostat temperature, even by just one degree, also makes a contribution.

By paying attention to electricity consumption, a further 2.45 billion cubic metres of gas per year can be saved, for a total of 5 billion cubic metres and 7 per cent of the 76 billion we use in Italy. In economic terms? 4.48 billion euros less, at prices based on the regulated market, without giving anything up but simply making wise use of the resources available.

The electrification of the energy system, widely discussed today as the cornerstone of the energy transition, will drive the uptake of electric vehicles, whose motors are far more efficient than the traditional internal combustion engine. Looking at an even broader picture, solutions such as hydrogen hold great potential in terms of the decarbonisation of so-called hard-to-abate sectors, such as energy-intensive industry or heavy transport.

From economic austerity to opportunities with renewables

To prevent an escalation of the conflict's effects, and to avoid rationing that today seems unthinkable, action must be taken immediately. The government led by Mariano Rumor tackled the 1973 oil crisis by launching a national "economic austerity" plan. It provided for immediate changes to save energy: a ban on driving on Sundays, the early end of television programmes — given that television accounts for more than 1 per cent of total consumption, equal to 4 GWh out of 318 TWh — and a reduction in street and commercial lighting.

Today it is possible to stimulate the production of energy from renewable sources on-site, thereby avoiding the need to import it from abroad. To do so, the installation of new capacity must be ramped up: today we are installing one tenth of what was being built in the two-year period 2011–2012. The pace of plant authorisation is extremely slow; constructing a biomethane facility takes six years instead of six months. These timescales are reflected, in turn, in the release of the resources deployed through the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr). True paradoxes, when one considers that there are solar photovoltaic installations already up and running but not yet connected to the grid.

The best moment to install new renewable capacity and expand existing infrastructure is right now, despite the soaring cost of raw materials but given the attention from industry. The concept of energy transition needs to be reshaped, as it is still too closely tied to the "bridging" role of gas towards renewables: in Italy there are more than 14 GW of new gas-fired power plants in active development (pre-construction and construction), a true European record.

On a global scale, if all gas plant projects currently under consideration were built, they would add over 615 GW of new capacity, fuelled by investments of nearly 509 billion dollars (470 billion euros). Figures that even coal cannot match, which worldwide stops at 456 GW for new power plants.

The German research institute for climate, environment and energy, the Wuppertal Institute, explains how to stop using gas and diesel for heat production in buildings in Germany. By 2035, the country could free itself from the use of fossil fuels for heating buildings, by betting everything on energy efficiency and renewable sources. To this end, the German government intends to invest massively in the growth of wind and solar photovoltaic energy so as to bring forward to 2035 the development of a 100 per cent renewable electricity system.

Wars also herald opportunities: past crises have encouraged a change of mindset and given rise to new infrastructure or even new words, such as ecology. The hope is that this war ends immediately and that Italy can focus on what matters.