Falling production, rising mortality in the fields, repercussions on workers' rights: a report by Terra! and EStà paints a picture of the climate crisis's impact on agriculture and puts forward solutions.
The climate crisis is already redrawing the structural economy and the organisation of work in the countryside, including in Italy: the report "Il cibo scotta – Gli effetti della crisi climatica su lavoro, agricoltura e filiere" (Food is Burning – The Effects of the Climate Crisis on Work, Agriculture and Supply Chains), the result of extensive work carried out by Terra! and EStà – Economia e Sostenibilità, gives us a snapshot of what is happening in Italian agriculture.
The dossier, which analyses the impact of climate warming on agricultural businesses and working conditions, is structured in three parts. The first analytically reconstructs the state of knowledge on climate change in Italy and its effects — on the one hand on the health and rights of those who work in the fields, and on the other on agricultural businesses — drawing on scientific and institutional literature published in recent years. The second part is a field investigation conducted in Puglia during last summer, in the farms and informal settlements of that region. The third is a quantitative analysis of the Po Valley, one of the country's agricultural engines, which correlates meteorological data with the economic results of agricultural businesses between 2019 and 2023.
The economic data gathered by the report make for sobering reading: figures from the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change and the National Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change reveal that, in the absence of prompt climate adaptation measures, by 2050 the decline in Italian agricultural production is estimated at 12.5 billion euros per year in the most optimistic scenario, and exceeds 30 billion euros per year in the most severe scenarios. Furthermore, the decrease in the value of agricultural land by the end of the century could, in pessimistic scenarios, amount to between 87 and 162 billion euros.
The cost of all this is being borne by the workforce. In the European Union, work-related mortality caused by extreme heat has grown by 42 per cent since 2000, an increase greater than in any other macro-region in the world. From June to August 2026 alone, according to union monitoring by Flai Cgil, at least 16 agricultural workers lost their lives in Italian fields due to the heat.
The report denounces the fact that the sudden decline in yields, agronomic quality and business profitability generates losses that the most marginal enterprises tend to offset by squeezing labour costs. This happens by reducing effective hourly wages or by resorting to precarious or contractually prohibited forms of employment, such as piecework. This pressure intensifies the exploitation and self-exploitation of vulnerable, occasional and needy individuals, who are willing to endure gruelling shifts under the sun in order to secure a minimum income.
Ten years ago, Italy's anti-caporalato law (Law no. 199/2016) was passed, but now climate change is creating the need for new instruments: "Today the climate crisis acts as a formidable multiplier of workers' exploitation, but also as a further element of crisis affecting the productive and business world" – explains Fabio Ciconte, president of Terra! – "The fight against caporalato can no longer be articulated solely through judicial and supervisory tools, but must be structurally integrated with ecological transition and mitigation policies and with policies for redistributing value along the supply chain."
"To address the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector, public policies and funding are needed – adds Francesca Federici, researcher at EStà Economia e Sostenibilità – The speed and unpredictability of these phenomena make the natural adaptive capacity of farmers and livestock breeders insufficient."
In the report, the field investigation focuses on Puglia, the historic epicentre of trade union struggles and the first region in 2021 to introduce a specific regional "anti-heat" ordinance. In 2026, the Puglia region recorded localised crop losses of between 50 and 60 per cent in the areas around Taranto and Brindisi, and a structural decline of 4,000 hectares under processing tomato cultivation due to drought. The 2026 harvest in Puglia was described by agronomists and producers as "the earliest ever", having begun for sparkling wine varieties as early as the first days of August.
"Ten to fifteen years ago, when women workers were harvesting broccoli in the morning frost, a fire would be lit in a cart that heated the greenhouse inside which the women worked. Today the cart has disappeared and the workers no longer go to warm themselves."
Nunzio, farmer from Ostuni.
To escape solar exposure and prevent tomatoes or fruit from deteriorating instantly on conveyor belts due to the high internal temperatures, the Tavoliere area is witnessing a rapid technological reorganisation — already well established in the tomato supply chain — along with a shift of harvesting activities to the dead of night (from 10 pm to 9 am). However, the investigation lays bare the partial ineffectiveness of anti-heat ordinances in the absence of stringent enforcement: in productive and territorial contexts dominated by piecework pay mechanisms, circumvention of the bans is recorded, with workers induced to increase the intensity of physical effort during the prohibited hours in order to safeguard their daily wage.
The report's authors argue that new rules are needed — public policies that cannot be limited to emergency measures, regional ordinances or non-binding protocols. It is also necessary to regulate night work, without however making it the solution. Many operations require daylight and at night risks increase. Where it is feasible, union agreements, adequate lighting and equipment, and public investment support are needed; the overtime and premium rates stipulated in contracts must be paid and the health effects assessed, before night work becomes the norm. It is essential to make protections accessible to all workers, with a focus on migrants and seasonal labourers, who are the most vulnerable to the impacts of extreme events.
Action could be taken through the future Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and additional national funding, so that resources finance agroecological practices that are in every respect mitigation and adaptation measures, and that help to preserve yields, quality and business profitability. Finally, there is a need for collective economic accountability on the part of certain actors in the supply chain. Large-scale retail and industry must acknowledge, in prices and supply contracts, the higher costs that businesses face as a result of the climate crisis, without passing them on to producers, workers or the shopping basket.