According to a study by several Italian universities, the affordability of a healthy diet in Italy is not uniform across time and space. The cost can exceed 200 euros per month.
The importance of following a healthy and sustainable diet is often discussed, but far fewer questions are asked about how much eating well actually costs and, above all, whether healthy eating is accessible to everyone. According to a study published in the scientific journal "Quality & Quantity" authored by Stefano Marchetti of the University of Pisa together with Ilaria Benedetti (University of Tuscia), Haoran Yang (University of Pisa) and Mathias Silva Vazquez (University of Rome Tor Vergata), the cost of a healthy diet in Italy is not uniform across space and time: overall, expenditure levels grow with age and caloric requirements, increase in spring and summer (with the exception of young children) and show significant differences between north and south, with average product prices rising over time.
The research assessed the cost of healthy and sustainable food baskets, essentially modelled on the Mediterranean diet, differentiated according to five groups: adult men, adult women, adolescents, young children and the elderly. The dietary plans were differentiated by sex and age group to ensure that the specific nutritional needs of the various populations were met. The weekly dietary model established consumption frequencies for the different food groups in order to maximise health benefits and minimise the risk of disease. Foods associated with a reduced risk of illness, such as whole grains, carbohydrates with a low glycaemic index, fruit, vegetables, extra virgin olive oil, nuts, yogurt, legumes and fish, were included more frequently. Conversely, high-risk foods, such as processed meats and refined, high-glycaemic-index carbohydrates, were limited to occasional consumption.
The analysis covered the period from August 2021 to March 2024 and was based on 326,721 price observations relating to 167 food products across 107 Italian provinces, collected through the Price and Tariff Observatory of the Ministry of Enterprises and Made in Italy.
The available data made it possible to estimate a minimum, average and maximum cost for each basket. The basket for adult men proved the most expensive, consistently coming in above 200 euros during the spring and summer months, starting from lower values in 2021; in the autumn-winter months it reaches approximately 150–160 euros towards the end of the period considered. The overall increase over the three-year period is in the order of 20 per cent. For adult women, the average monthly cost rises from around 175 euros to around 208 euros in the warmer months and from around 130 euros to around 156 euros in the colder months. The overall increase over the three years is close to 19–20 per cent.
For the elderly, the basket falls within an intermediate range, with values that progressively increase over the period to reach approximately 160–170 euros in the warmer months and around 120 euros in the colder months. For this group too, the overall increase is around 20 per cent. For adolescents, the average cost rises from around 109 euros to around 131 euros in the spring and summer months and from around 65 euros to around 78 euros in the autumn-winter months. The increase over the period is just above 20 per cent. For young children, the basket rises from around 49 to around 62 euros in the warmer months and from around 65 euros to around 79 euros in the colder months. The overall increase is between 20 and 25 per cent. This remains the only age group with a higher cost in winter than in summer.
On the geographical front too, the study highlights structural differences. Average and maximum prices for the baskets are higher in the northern provinces, while minimum prices – that is, the lowest cost theoretically required to follow the diet – are often higher in the south. "One possible explanation," observes Stefano Marchetti of the University of Pisa, "could be the lower presence of large-scale organised retail in some areas of the south, where competition and economies of scale are less intense, and this can affect the lowest available prices."
The study was conducted as part of the PRIN 2022 project "FOOD MeaSure – Poverty, Vulnerable Individuals and Sustainable Diets – New perspectives on Official Statistical data", which analyses the relationship between poverty, social vulnerability and access to healthy and sustainable diets through the innovative use of official statistical data. The findings highlight the importance of monitoring tools and targeted policies for the most vulnerable groups. Future research should explore behavioural responses to rising food costs and assess the effectiveness of interventions aimed at mitigating the nutritional and economic consequences of inflation for at-risk populations.