A new civil conflict is under way in Libya. General Khalifa Haftar is marching on Tripoli, seizing control of oil fields and causing the deaths of hundreds of civilians.
Libya is going through its third civil war since 2011. It all began on 4 April 2019 with the march on Tripoli by General Khalifa Haftar, leading the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (Lna). An advance conceived as a "lightning strike" but which has instead dragged on for months, already claiming more than 300 deaths among the civilian population and displacing thousands: a toll announced by the president of the Association of Doctors of Foreign Origin in Italy (Amsi), Foad Aodi. The number of displaced persons stands at more than 40,000, of whom 50 per cent are women and 25 per cent are minors. Diplomatic efforts are scarce and an end seems distant. What exactly is happening?
The origins of the conflict can be traced back to the fall of Mu'ammar Gaddafi, who ruled Libya for more than 40 years — from 1969 to 2011 — before capitulating and being killed at the end of what is considered the first civil war in Libya, which broke out during the period of the Arab Spring. Gaddafi's thinking is summarised by the dictator himself in the Green Book, in which he sets out the "third universal theory", a kind of alternative to capitalism and communism, close to the Arab socialism idealised by Gamal Abd al-Nasser.
Yet, as so often happens, what had been theorised on paper found no reflection in reality, and the failure of citizens to engage with this process of inclusion ended up generating the opposite sentiment: one of abstentionism and disengagement from politics. Something which, according to experts, allowed Gaddafi to rule Libya undisturbed until his death.
After Gaddafi's death, the first legislative elections in Libya were held in 2012. The government formed in Tripoli immediately generated discontent among the various representative factions. These disaffected factions subsequently converged in the Libyan National Army (Lna) led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar. As two parliaments took shape — one in Tripoli and the other in Tobruk, in Cyrenaica — a third force, the Islamic State (Isis), made its entry into Libya, fuelling the second civil war. With the agreement reached in Skhirat, Morocco, in 2015 and a peace accord introduced in 2016, a coalition government was formed: the United Nations and the international community recognised Fayez al Sarraj as prime minister.
As reported in the pages of Le Monde, with Haftar's occupation of the oil crescent, things changed: whereas up to that point the general had been seen as a bellicose military figure, and for that reason sidelined by western states, once he had gained control of the vast oil fields, some states began to view him differently, almost as a potential ally. In his favour was the role Haftar had played in fighting jihadists in Libya. Until matters came to a head in April 2019, when the commander ordered the bombing of Mitiga airport, the only one open to civilians. Tripoli was caught off guard and immediately announced a counter-offensive. But by then the war had begun, and with it the game of sides. Meanwhile, in just two days of conflict, 47 deaths had already been recorded, including 9 civilians, and 2,800 people had been displaced.
Among the main backers of Haftar's military and expansionist policy are the United States: President Donald Trump, the White House announced in a statement on 15 April, "recognised the significance of Haftar's role in fighting terrorism and securing Libya's oil resources" and "discussed a shared vision for Libya's transition to a stable, unified government".
Haftar has indeed got his hands on 50 per cent of Libya's oil production: the Lna has taken control of Sharara, the largest oil field in Libya with 315,000 barrels per day (managed by the Libyan national oil company Noc in collaboration with Repsol, Total, Omv and Equinor), and of el-Feel, the Elephant field (where Italian company Eni operates), which produces 80,000 barrels per day. In addition, the Cyrenaican government now also controls the two main oil terminals of Ras Lanuf and El-Sider, in the Sirte area. Haftar, in a mosaic of alliances perpetually on the brink of crisis, can for now also count on the support of France, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
On the other side, al Sarraj can count on the other half of Libya's production (and on the backing of the UN, Qatar and Turkey): under the Tripoli government, the offshore fields of Bouri — 50 per cent owned by Eni — and al-Jurf remain, together producing just over 100,000 barrels per day (figures from Startmag). Eni and Noc also manage the natural gas field at Wafa. The GreenStream pipeline, which connects Libya to Italy and whose terminal is managed by Eni, remains in a contested zone. Formally this area is in the hands of Prime Minister al Serraj, but it lies just a few kilometres from Haftar's offensive.
Italy has not clarified its position: while Haftar continues his advance on Tripoli, Serraj is urging the Italian government to reconsider its stance following the declaration of neutrality by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte: "Neither with Sarraj, nor with Haftar, but with the Libyan people," Conte said during a visit to China. Sarraj, who has in the meantime requested the arrest of Haftar and 63 of his men, considers Rome's position highly dangerous, as it fails to distance itself from "a war criminal who has attacked the capital and its three million inhabitants by bombing civilians." His interior minister Fathi Bashaga, announcing a setback on all fronts for Haftar's militias, warned Conte: "Italy must do its sums carefully, given that national interests lie primarily in Tripolitania, starting with the Eni plant at Mellitah, and the energy contracts co-managed with Noc, the national oil authority which, like the central bank, answers to Sarraj." Despite the warning, Conte received General Haftar in Rome to discuss the situation in Libya.
Despite calls for a ceasefire, the clashes continue, claiming lives and forcing entire families to flee their homes. Detention centres full of migrants from across Africa are being left to fend for themselves: Al Jazeera recently contacted people inside these facilities, confirming that hundreds of detainees are receiving neither medical care nor food.
The UN refugee agency has called for "safe, prolonged and unimpeded humanitarian access to all conflict areas". According to the UN, these centres – formally under the control of the Department for Combating Illegal Migration (Dcim) but in practice run by militias – currently house around six thousand people and more than six hundred children. The majority are people pushed back from Europe and returned to the African country. Despite Italy and the European Union continuing to provide funds and training to the Libyan coastguard in exchange for interceptions at sea, the UN has reiterated that Libya is by no means a safe port. Since the third Libyan civil war began, Italy has opened a single humanitarian corridor, taking in 147 refugees from Misrata, of whom 68 are minors (46 unaccompanied).